Asian currencies rebound this week on China stimulus speculation

Asian currencies strengthened this week, with the won and ringgit set for their biggest gains in more than five months, as speculation mounted that China will take steps to combat a slowdown in the region’s biggest economy.

Chinese Premier Li Keqiang said the nation should “roll out effective policies in a targeted way” and cannot ignore the risks to growth, according to a statement on the government’s website. An official gauge of China’s manufacturing is expected to show March’s growth was the least since June, while a private index is likely to point to a third monthly contraction, according to the median estimates in Bloomberg surveys before April 1 data.

“Investors were expecting Chinese growth to be weak, but now it looks like there may be support from some stimulus policies,” said Frances Cheung, a Hong Kong-based strategist at Credit Agricole CIB.

“Asian currencies have been rising since there’s been some support for risky assets.”

The Bloomberg-JPMorgan Asia Dollar Index, which tracks the region’s 10 most-active currencies, advanced 0.5 percent this week as of 12:04 p.m. in Hong Kong. It fell 1 percent in the last two weeks. India’s rupee strengthened 1.4 percent versus the dollar, the biggest gain in three months. South Korea’s won advanced 1.1 percent, the most since September, and Malaysia’s ringgit climbed 1 percent, its best performance since October.

China’s policy makers will loosen monetary and fiscal policies in the second quarter, Zhang Zhiwei, an economist at Nomura Holdings Inc., forecast in a research note today. The yuan appreciated 0.2 percent this week, trimming its loss for the year to 2.5 percent.

“Some of the bearish China bets have been taken off the table because of expectations that the Chinese authorities might come up with some stimulus,” said Sim Moh Siong, a foreign- exchange strategist at Bank of Singapore Ltd. “There’s a perception here that perhaps there’s some value in the emerging- market currencies.”

The Philippine peso rose 0.7 percent this week, Taiwan’s dollar gained 0.5 percent and Indonesia’s rupiah added 0.1 percent. Thailand’s baht weakened 0.4 percent.