GDP to moderate in 2015, says RHB Research

Malaysia's real gross domestic product (GDP) is likely to grow at a faster pace of 5.8 percent in 2014 before moderating to 5.3 percent next year, RHB Research said.

In a research note, it said a slower economic growth anticipated next year due to dampening effect of domestic demand, due the implementation of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) from April 2015, prompting a more cautious tone among consumers.

"Nevertheless, we still expect consumer spending to remain resilient, supported by higher amount of cash assistance via the 1Malaysia People's Aid for the low-income group," it added.

RHB Research expects private investment to sustain its growth at 10.1 percent in 2014, after a gain of 13.1 percent in 2013.

"Some front loading of consumption, particularly on big-ticket items ahead of the implementation of the GST is expected to cushion the moderation in private consumption," it added.

Malaysia's real GDP growth moderated to 5.6 percent year-on-year in the third quarter of 2014, after rising to a six-quarter high of 6.4 percent in the second quarter this year, supported by private consumption.

During the third quarter, public and private consumption grew by 5.3 percent and 6.7 percent, respectively.

Meanwhile, Malaysian Rating Corporation Berhad chief economist, Nor Zahidi Alias said it would be slightly challenging for the economy to continue churning the same growth figure next year if private consumption started to take a hit from higher inflation.

"However, GDP growth will still be in the range of its long-term growth of five percent in 2015 if external demand rebounds again on the back of stronger US economy," he told Bernama.

Exports in the third quarter have moderated following global economic uncertainties especially with regards to the Euro and China's economies, Nor Zahidi said.

"The continued strength of private consumption have somewhat surprised us and its 3.6-percentage contribution was the main reason behind the strength of the economy in the third quarter of 2014," he added.