IATA forecasts passenger demand to double over next 20 years

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) expects 7.2 billion passengers to travel in 2035, a near doubling of the 3.8 billion air travelers this year.

The prediction is based on a 3.7 per cent annual Compound Average Growth Rate (CAGR) noted in the release of the latest update to the association’s 20-Year Air Passenger Forecast, it said in a statement today.

The forecast said the biggest driver of demand will be the Asia-Pacific region and it is expected to be the source of more than half the new passengers over the next 20 years.

It said China will displace the US as the world’s largest aviation market (defined by traffic to, from and within the country) around 2029.

India will displace the United Kingdom for third place in 2026, while Indonesia enters the top ten at the expense of Italy.

"Growth will also increasingly be driven within developing markets. Over the past decade the developing world’s share of total passenger traffic has risen from 24 per cent to nearly 40 per cent, and this trend is set to continue," it said.

IATA Director General and Chief Executive Officer Alexandre de Juniac said people want to fly, thus, demand for air travel over the next two decades is set to double.

"Enabling people and nations to trade, explore, and share the benefits of innovation and economic prosperity makes our world a better place," he said.

The association however said an increased trade protectionism has potential to damage the growth prospects.

"Conversely, if the current trend towards trade protectionism gathers strength, growth could cool to a 2.5 per cent annual CAGR which would see passenger numbers reach only 5.8 billion by 2035," it added. -- BERNAMA