The rise in Malaysia's exports in November by 3.3 per cent from a dismal performance in the previous month is a signal that the worst may be over, says RAM Holdings Bhd Group Chief Economist Dr Yeah Kim Leng.
He said the export figure has surprised many economists and has given Malaysia the boost it needed to recover from a 3.2 per cent slump in October last year.
"Demand from the United States and China has continued to contribute to the figure besides the year-end pick-up in demand from other major trading partners," he told Bernama when contacted.
The Ministry of International Trade and Industry (MITI) said on Wednesday that Malaysia's total trade in November rose 3.7 per cent to RM108.06 billion.
Yeah said exports account for roughly 60 per cent of Malaysia's gross domestic product, making the country vulnerable to downturns in major economies.
He said despite the demand from European Union countries continuing to remain weak, trade between Malaysia and the US and China are the key to success.
"Overall, we are still optimistic that Malaysia will be able to achieve gross domestic product (GDP) growth of five to six per cent this year," he said.
He also lauded the current government policies, saying they continue to sustain investors' confidence, resulting in rising foreign direct investment.
"But we must remember, we still have to go through the election cliff and once it is over, I believe we will be able to continue growing positively," he said.
However, Alliance Research economist Manokaran Mottain said Malaysia's gross exports rebounded by 3.3 per cent in November 2012, reflecting the recovery in demand from China and India.
He said Malaysia's export data for November came higher than the consensus estimate of 2.3 to 2.5 per cent.
"Nonetheless, we remain wary of a sustainable trend in the short term but in moving forward, we expect the volatility to likely remain, although global uncertainty may have subsided greatly, in line with the improvement in global Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI)," he said in a research note.
Manokaran expects the global trade to remain weak due to the continued uncertainties in the eurozone and other major economies like the US and Japan.
But he said the the improving domestic conditions in China will help ease the volatilities in exports.
"Given the data, we maintain our view that GDP may have moderated to 5 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2012, from 5.3 per cent in the third quarter of 2012.
"For 2013, we forecast a GDP growth of 5 per cent, driven by sustained strong domestic demand activities led by implementation of Economic Transformation Programme (ETP) projects," he said.
Meanwhile, Hong Leong Investment Bank in its research note said that Malaysia will grow at a more moderate pace of 4.5 per cent given lacklustre global demand amid a softer commodity outlook.
"We expect Bank Negara Malaysia to hold the overnight policy rate (OPR) steady at 3.0 per cent and we believe the central bank will be contented with slightly slower growth while counting on domestic demand to support growth," it said.
Bernama
Thu Jan 10 2013
COP29 climate summit draft proposes rich countries pay $250 billion per year
The draft finance deal criticised by both developed and developing nations.
Bomb squad sent to London's Gatwick Airport after terminal evacuation
This was following the discovery of a suspected prohibited item in luggage.
Kelantan urges caution amidst northeast monsoon rains
Kelantan has reminded the public in the state to refrain from outdoor activities with the arrival of the Northeast Monsoon season.
Former New Zealand PM Jacinda Ardern receives UN leadership award
Former New Zealand prime minister Jacinda Ardern was given a global leadership award by the United Nations Foundation.
ICC'S arrest warrants for Netanyahu, Gallant an apt decision - PM
The decision of the ICC to issue arrest warrants against Benjamin Netanyahu and Yoav Gallant is apt, said Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim.
KTMB provides two additional ETS trains for Christmas, school holidays
KTMB will provide two additional ETS trains for the KL Sentral-Padang Besar route and return trips in conjunction with the holidays.
BNM'S international reserves rise to USD118 bil as at Nov 15, 2024
Malaysia's international reserves rose to US$118.0 billion as at Nov 15, 2024, up from US$117.6 billion on Oct 30, 2024.
Findings by dark energy researchers back Einstein's conception of gravity
The findings announced are part of a years-long study of the history of the cosmos focusing upon dark energy.
NRES responds to Rimbawatch press release on COP29
The Ministry of Natural Resources and Environmental Sustainability (NRES) wishes to offer the following clarifications to the issues raised.
Online Safety Bill and Anti-Cyberbullying Laws must carefully balance rights and protections
The Online Safety Advocacy Group (OSAG) stands united with people in Malaysia in the fight against serious online harms.
Malaysia's inflation at 1.9 pct in Oct 2024 - DOSM
Malaysia's inflation rate for October 2024 has increased to 1.9 per cent, up from 1.8 per cent in September this year.
Saudi Arabia showcases Vision 2030 goals at Airshow China 2024
For the first time, Saudi Arabia is participating in the China International Aviation & Aerospace Exhibition held recently in Zhuhai.
King Charles' coronation cost GBP 71mil, govt accounts show
The coronation of Britain's King Charles cost taxpayers GBP72 million (US$90 million), official accounts have revealed.
Couple and associate charged with trafficking 51.9 kg of meth
A married couple and a man were charged in the Magistrate's Court here today with trafficking 51.974 kilogrammes of Methamphetamine.
PDRM to consult AGC in completing Teoh Beng Hock investigation
The police may seek new testimony from existing witnesses for additional insights into the investigation of Teoh Beng Hock's death.
Thai court rejects petition over ex-PM Thaksin's political influence
Thailand's Constitutional Court rejects a petition seeking to stop Thaksin Shinawatra from interfering in the running the Pheu Thai party.
Abidin takes oath of office as Sungai Bakap assemblyman
The State Assemblyman for Sungai Bakap, Abidin Ismail, was sworn in today at the State Assembly building, Lebuh Light.
UPNM cadet officer charged with injuring junior, stomping on him with spike boots
A cadet officer at UPNM pleaded not guilty to a charge of injuring his junior by stomping on the victim's stomach with spike boots.
How Indian billionaire Gautam Adani's alleged bribery scheme took off and unraveled
The indictment was unsealed on Nov. 20, prompting a $27 billion plunge in Adani Group companies' market value.
Elon Musk blasts Australia's planned ban on social media for children
Several countries have already vowed to curb social media use by children through legislation, but Australia's policy could become one of the most stringent.