A roller coaster ride for Bursa Malaysia and its peers in 2016

Political turmoil, subzero interest rates, depreciating crude oil prices and the upset victory of Donald Trump in the most contentious US election in recent history, sent shockwaves to global markets.

Over in Europe, the continent has seen the departures of the British and Italian Prime Ministers, who have stepped down following referendum losses, while the French President has decided not to contest in the next election.

Zooming into the domestic market, Bursa Malaysia had experienced a fair share of volatility this year with the benchmark index FBM KLCI falling to its lowest of 1,600 points on Jan 21, as crude oil prices took a plunge for the first time since 2003.

Crude oil prices crashed below US$30 per barrel on a global supply glut and slowing China economy, and this resulted in Petronas-linked companies and refineries taking a hit from the volatility.

Crude inventories had risen by 4.6 million barrels as at Jan 15 to 485.2 million barrels, well above analysts' expectation of an increase of 2.8 million barrels, and the situation was exacerbated by the entry of Iranian oil into the global markets upon the lifting of sanctions by the US.

According to MIDF Investment, oil firms continued laying off workers while currencies of commodity producing countries were in turmoil.

The market rebounded in March as the US Federal Reserve (Fed) held interest rates steady and was anticipated to have fewer rate hikes through the year due to external risks facing the US economy.

The Fed, however, increased its interest rate by 0.25 per cent in December, the first in 2016, which followed a single hike in 2015. The US central bank also signalled up to three hikes in 2017.

On Bursa Malaysia, the market barometer continued its climb in March and closed the first quarter of 2016 at 1,718 points, as foreign funds turned net buyers with a net inflow of RM4.4 billion in the said period.

In April, the index rose to the year's high of 1,727.99 as oil markets stabilised, but volatility set in again beginning in May on anticipation of a US interest rate hike, as the world's largest economy improved on its economic activities.

Then came the referendum on June 23 on whether the UK should leave or remain in the European Union (Brexit).

The markets were spooked after British citizens unexpectedly voted to leave the grouping, causing the British Pound and FTSE100 benchmark index to plunge 11 per cent and 9.0 per cent respectively on the subsequent market day.

Bursa Malaysia also fell similarly along with other markets, with the index dropping to its intraday low of around 1,611 points before normalising at the 1,630-level.

However, a cabinet reshuffle on the home front on June 27 which saw the appointment of four new ministers, including a new Second Finance Minister and several deputy ministers, helped recover the sentiment and propelled the FBM KLCI to end the second quarter of 2016 at 1,654 points.

The stock market got a further reprieve following the announcement of Budget 2017 in late October.

The Budget will be premised on an average crude oil price of US$45 per barrel and there is potential upside to the government's income should the oil price be at higher levels.

Investors reacted positively to this, pushing the benchmark index back to above the 1,670-level despite the ringgit easing to RM4.20 to the US Dollar.

However, the shocking outcome of the US Presidential Election in November with the victory of Republican nominee Donald Trump had plunged global markets into a period of high volatility amidst uncertainties of how his presidency will affect US economic policies and the world economic climate.

As a result, the FBM KLCI declined to below 1,620 points for the first time since June 2016.

"The threat to Malaysia and the emerging markets over Trump's presidency is if he does adopt protectionist trade policies, and this is a risk that will keep investors uncertain until there is clarity on the issue," FXTM Vice President of Corporate Development and Market Research Jameel Ahmad told Bernama in an email interview.

He added that global investors were eagerly awaiting how the markets would react to Trump taking office on Jan 20 which was sure to dominate attention.

Meanwhile, Felda Global Ventures Holdings Bhd was thrust into the spotlight after the Employees Provident Fund (EPF) announced that it had relinquished all its shareholdings in the palm oil producer, with FGV shares slipping to RM1.53 per share at the close on Dec 23.

According to a news report, the pension fund, which was among the cornerstone investors in FGV's initial public offering in 2012, had held a 3.85 per cent interest as of March 18 and was its seventh-biggest shareholder.

"The FBM KLCI, despite showing resilience in overcoming the decline during the start of the year, has so far failed to shake off the blows coming from the unexpected outcome of the Brexit referendum and US Presidential election, and has gone sideways to a band of between 1,620-1,640 points since November," said MIDF Investment.

Between January to Dec 27, net selling by foreigners expanded to RM3.0 billion against a total of RM19.5 billion recorded in 2015.

According to Bursa Malaysia's website, in November foreign institutions accounted for 12.12 per cent of the stock volume transacted during the month and local instutions constituted 22.01 per cent.

Meanwhile, the aggregate earnings of the 30 companies that make up the FBM KLCI were estimated to have rebounded 5.6 per cent in 2016, after the decline of 12.8 per cent in 2015.

MIDF Investment said the recovery was expected to extend into 2017, as the aggregate earnings were forecast to grow by 7.5 per cent in 2017.

The FBM KLCI ended at 1,641.73 on Dec 30, down 50.78 points, from 1,692.51 recorded at end-2015.