3% votes swing to decide the new government

A mere 3 per cent swing in votes towards either the Barisan Nasional or Pakatan Rakyat coalition is enough to form the next government, according to political analyst Ibrahim Suffian.

The director for independent pollster Merdeka Centre said that while the last leg of campaigning would have minimal impact on the small number of undecided voters, every last vote would matter.

“In this current scenario where no clear side has a very strong lead, anybody who can swing a 3 per cent in votes would have more than enough (to win and form the next government),” said Ibrahim.

He said that at this stage, the deciding voters were the young people and women, of which less than 5% have not made up their minds.

Nationally, said Ibrahim, younger Malay voters are not supporting Barisan Nasional but their parents are largely more pro-establishment.

“So on average, the situation cancels each other out, so there is no drastic change in the Malay votes,” he said.

The Chinese support, on the other hand, has seen increased support for the Opposition.

“In certain areas, urban especially, the support has already been maxed out. In smaller towns in Johor, Negeri Sembilan and Pahang, we can see increase support that will play into the local dynamics,” he said.

Ibrahim said that for the Indian voters, they have largely moved to BN after the break up of Hindraf.

“The recent Hindraf MOU with Barisan had minimal impact actually as the pulling power of the movement was not that of 2007. The Indians have gone back to BN and will stay there for some time,” said Ibrahim.

He said that the ground surveys have found that the national average of support for BN was at about 52-55%.

“The Chinese support for BN was at around 25-30 per cent and Malay support between 58-62 per cent,” he said, adding that these figures were from March.