GE13: BN and Pakatan in neck-to-neck "toss up" of 46 seats

The 13th General Election would see the focus on 46 parliamentary seats, where the stiff "neck to neck" competition between Barisan Nasional (BN) and Pakatan Rakyat coalitions has made chances of winning these seats a “toss up”.

This is according to the latest survey of independent pollster Merdeka Centre, released just 60 hours ahead of GE13, which said that at the moment neither BN nor Pakatan has clear lead in this race.

“Based on the survey results and the assumption that the election is free and fair, we estimate that neither Barisan Nasional nor Pakatan Rakyat were in the lead as at 9:30pm on May 2nd 2013.”

Based on its findings, Merdeka Centre said that the current standing is that Pakatan Rakyat is estimated to win 89 seats while BN is to win 85.

The seats most likely to go to Pakatan is made up of 81 in the Peninsular, three in Sabah and Labuan and five in Sarawak. BN’s 85 seat wins consist of 50 in peninsular Malaysia, 16 in Sabah and Labuan and 19 in Sarawak.

The 46 “toss up” seats Merdeka Centre identified as going either way consisted of 34 in peninsular Malaysia, six in Sabah and Labuan and six others in Sarawak.

There were two other seats identified as most likely to go to parties neither aligned to BN or Pakatan.

In the survey carried out among voters in Peninsular Malaysia between April 28th to May 2nd 2013, Merdeka Centre found that 42% of voters agreed that “Pakatan Rakyat should be given a chance to govern the country” while 41% of voters felt “Only BN can govern the country”.

At the same time, 4% of voters refused to respond while 13% of voters said they “did not know” when asked to choose between BN or Pakatan.

The same survey found that the prime minister’s approval rating just days from polling day to be 61% down from 64% (based on a survey conducted 12th to 17th March 2013).

Merdeka Centre opined that the drop prime minister’s rating reflects the slide in the “feel good” factor generated by the large scale distribution of Bantuan Rakyat 1Malaysia (BR1M) and such cash handouts targeting various sectors of the electorate.

The survey also found that 58% of the respondents were optimistic direction of the country while 31% feels that it was going in the wrong direction.

The general perception towards BN showed in the survey showed that there were 50% who were positive and 31% who felt negatively towards the coalition. On the other hand, respondents were 34% positive and 27% negative towards Pakatan.

In the same survey, concerns over the economy (25%) topped the list of issues voters wanted to hear discussed or debated during the election followed by matters pertaining to administration and leadership 9%, social issues and public safety 7%, race-related issues 7% and corruption at 6%.

The survey was carried out among 1,600 registered voters comprising 59% Malay,32% Chinese and 9% Indian respondents who were interviewed by telephone.