After tariffs, the optics war begins: Will trump cast Taiwan as his next theatre?

Invariably, August 12 may prove to be the true turning point — if Trump resists the temptation to fidget with his own script, or delay the tariff climax in favour of a more dramatic demonstration of his genius as the ultimate showman the United States, indeed, the world, has ever seen.

If that day fails to deliver narrative control, his next move will likely feature the Taiwan Strait.

Optics Over Outcome: The Real Role of August 12

The White House has confirmed a high-level meeting with China, set for no later than August 12. Despite being framed as a negotiation, it is ultimately a battle for narrative optics.

Trump seeks not policy breakthroughs but camera-ready drama—who speaks first, who refuses the handshake, who exits the stage first. If Beijing remains composed and avoids spectacle, Trump’s script falters and attention will shift to Taiwan, an already primed proxy for his narrative pivot.

In recent weeks, the U.S. State Department and Pentagon have intensified public messaging on Taiwan, reportedly testing whether Japan or Australia would commit troops in a potential Taiwan scenario. Tokyo offered cautious disclaimers about hypothetical scenarios, and Canberra clearly stated it would not pre-commit troops. Despite allied reticence, senior U.S. officials have ramped up Taiwan references, positioning the Strait as inevitable, and U.S. media increasingly frame Taiwan as a frontline of democracy, deftly transforming geopolitical support into a moral imperative. This shift is no accident—it is a calculated narrative escalation.

Trump’s strategic playbook extends well beyond Taiwan. The administration has begun imposing AI chip export controls on China, signalling the dawn of “Tech Cold War 2.0.”

Meanwhile, historic tensions between Japan, South Korea and China are being stoked to fragment regional cohesion. At the same time, warnings about digital currency risks are deployed to slow the progress of the renminbi’s internationalization. Export controls now target chip design software and strategic chemicals. Each initiative serves the same objective: contain China, reset alliances, and reassert U.S. leadership.

Amid this intensifying geopolitical theatre, ASEAN has chosen restraint over spectacle. Vietnam has quietly enhanced its export supply chains to reduce dependence.

For example, according to Professor Phar Kim Beng, the Director of the Institute of Internationalization and ASEAN Studies (IINTAS) at the International Islamic University, Vietnam's Gross Domestic Product (GDP)'s reliance on exporting to the world, almost verges on 92-93 percent each year.

Malaysia is advancing digital trade frameworks and local-currency settlement systems, Indonesia is deepening regional value chains, and Singapore is bolstering multilateral resilience mechanisms.

This is coordinated sovereign strategy—rejecting weaponization through silence. Despite internal policy differences, ASEAN has demonstrated unprecedented unity precisely when its collective sovereignty was at stake.

Trump’s next move may lean toward Taiwan or pivot to tech, finance, or regional tensions—but the aim remains the same: enforce obedience through spectacle. He can swap venues and reassign roles, but cannot suppress the global awakening of strategic autonomy.

Many countries have learned that refusing to take the stage is more powerful than any speech. ASEAN doesn’t need grand gestures or side-taking; by reinforcing regional institutions, deepening local rules, and asserting economic sovereignty, it sends a clear message—it does not reject America, but refuses to be scripted.

And if August 12 is not just a summit—but a screen test—then the real victory belongs not to the loudest, but to those who can bring their own narrative backstage and rewrite the ending.

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CW Sim is Chief Strategic Advisor on Greater China, Strategic Pan Indo-Pacific Asia (SPIPA)