All peace processes must go on - by Malaysia or in Myanmar - or ASEAN risks a meltdown

In an article, Al Jazeera captured the essence of this regional anxiety: ASEAN has urged Myanmar’s junta to prioritise peace over political theatre. Malaysia, as the ASEAN Chair in 2025, has taken the clearest stance, insisting that no election can be credible if the killing continues. It is a position rooted in reason, history, and painful experience.

Myanmar’s military has promised an election in 2025 or 2026, but the country remains a patchwork of collapsing state institutions, contested territories, relentless aerial bombardments, and resistance forces achieving unprecedented territorial gains. Millions are displaced. Humanitarian access is blocked in many areas. Violence is not subsiding; it is accelerating.

ASEAN’s Five-Point Consensus—calling for cessation of violence, humanitarian access, inclusive dialogue, a special envoy, and constructive engagement—remains largely unimplemented. The credibility of Myanmar’s planned election collapses in the face of these realities. Without peace, any vote becomes a façade.

Malaysia’s message, echoed in Al Jazeera’s reporting, is straightforward: peace must come first. An election conducted on the ruins of trust, burned villages, and mass displacement will deepen the conflict rather than heal it.

Throughout 2025, Malaysia has taken its chairmanship role seriously. Far from being passive, it has tried to restore the diplomatic scaffolding needed to stabilise the region. Whether in the Thai Cambodian border crisis, the US–China tariff truce, or the Myanmar catastrophe, Malaysia understands that ASEAN’s strength depends on its ability to broker conversations when others are ready to resort to conflict.

In the case of Myanmar, Malaysia’s approach does not seek to shame or isolate Naypyidaw. It aims to remind all parties that ASEAN was built to prevent precisely this kind of implosion, in which one member's crisis spills over into the wider region.

If Malaysia does not persist in shepherding these peace efforts, and if Myanmar remains resistant to dialogue, then ASEAN may cross a point of no return.

ASEAN’s DNA rests on several principles: non-interference, consensus, quiet diplomacy, incremental confidence-building, and a shared vision of stability through cooperation.

Yet Myanmar’s crisis has stress-tested all five pillars. The junta’s refusal to engage, its dismissal of ASEAN envoys, and its continued violence have turned the bloc’s consensus model into a liability. Member states are increasingly split: some demand more decisive action, others prefer caution, and some are exploring bilateral channels outside ASEAN. This splintering is dangerous.

ASEAN’s inability to enforce its own consensus risks creating a cascade of failures, including rising refugee flows, intensifying cross-border crime, eroding investor confidence, humanitarian spillovers, diplomatic exhaustion, and a loss of international credibility.

If ASEAN fails in Myanmar, many fear it could fail in bigger future crises. Failure becomes a habit.

One of ASEAN’s long-held assumptions — that internal conflicts can be quarantined — no longer holds. Myanmar’s instability has already spilled over into Thailand, India, Bangladesh, and China. If the conflict escalates, new waves of refugees, illegal trafficking, arms flow, and fake-ID networks will cross regional borders.

The Association cannot pretend that Myanmar’s collapse is Myanmar’s problem alone. It is ASEAN’s collective headache. And it will become ASEAN’s migraine if peace efforts stall.

This is the uncomfortable truth: ASEAN’s coherence is at stake. The bloc is not held together by military might or legal obligations but by the belief that regional problems are best solved regionally. If that belief dissolves, ASEAN dissolves.

Thus, peace efforts between Thailand and Cambodia must not stall, no matter how many setbacks occur. Also, peace efforts in Myanmar must not be delayed, no matter how reluctant Naypyidaw may be.

Malaysia must continue to lead, engage, and mediate, even after its chairmanship ends on December 31, 2025. Myanmar’s armed actors must keep channels open, even during the most intense battles. ASEAN’s strength lies not in perfection but in persistence.

The Myanmar crisis is ASEAN’s ultimate test. It is not simply a diplomatic challenge—it is a defining moment that will reveal whether ASEAN can still hold the regional centre together.

If peace processes stop — in Malaysia’s diplomacy, or in Myanmar’s fractured political landscape — ASEAN risks its most serious institutional meltdown in decades.

The path ahead is clear; peace must continue. Dialogue must continue. Mediation must continue. Whether in Malaysia or within Myanmar, it does not matter who carries the torch. What matters is that the torch does not go out.

Because if it does, the darkness will not be confined within Myanmar. It will fall upon ASEAN itself.

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Phar Kim Beng, PhD, is Professor of ASEAN Studies and Director of the Institute of Internationaliation and ASEAN Studies (IINTAS) at the International Islamic University Malaysia.