AMNC25: Global Trade at a Tipping Point as Power Shifts to the Global South - Li Qiang

That was the key message from Chinese Premier Li Qiang, who opened the World Economic Forum’s Annual Meeting of the New Champions 2025 in Tianjin with a bold warning and a call to rethink how nations engage economically.

“The global economic and trade landscape is undergoing profound changes, we must look beyond surface-level shifts and focus on the real forces driving these changes.” He said.

In a comprehensive keynote, Li outlined four megatrends now rewriting the rules of global trade and investment.

1.⁠ ⁠The Global South Is No Longer the Underdog

According to Li, the balance of economic power is tilting decisively. While advanced economies are seeing stagnation in trade, developing nations are on the rise and fast.

• Since 2000, trade in goods from developing countries has surged 4.6 times. • Their share of global trade has jumped from 30% to 45%. • Collectively, these nations represent 70% of the world’s population and increasingly, the engine of global growth.

“The Global South has become a vibrant market, and it’s no longer playing catch-up — it’s driving forward,” Li said.

2.⁠ ⁠Emerging Sectors Are Redefining Trade

Traditional trade in goods is slowing. In its place, services, digital trade, and green exports are taking center stage.

• In 2024, global goods trade grew by only 2%, but services trade grew by 8.8%. • Services contributed to 60% of total global trade growth last year. • Over the past decade, exports of digital services have doubled.

Li pointed to rapid technological progress as the key driver.

“The frontiers of trade are expanding and it’s digital, it’s green, and it’s fast-moving.”

3.⁠ ⁠Global Cooperation Is Fracturing

Protectionist policies are on the rise, and multilateral trade rules are under pressure.

• In 2024 alone, the world saw over 1,200 discriminatory trade barriers up six-fold from pre-pandemic levels. • Countries are turning toward regional and bilateral trade pacts, now numbering over 600 agreements worldwide, up from fewer than 100 at the start of the century.

“This shift brings flexibility but also risk,” we need to ask whether this fragmentation ultimately helps or hurts global trade.” Li warned.

4.⁠ ⁠Investment Is Falling, Supply Chains Are Splintering

Perhaps most alarming is the decline in global investment and the erosion of efficient, globalized supply chains.

• Cross-border investment has fallen for three consecutive years, and is now 40% below its historical peak. • Companies are increasingly pursuing friend-shoring, near-shoring, and on-shoring, disrupting international production models. • These shifts, Li said, are “driven more by fear than strategy” — and they come at a cost.

“Redundant construction, rising costs, and inefficiencies are the side effects of de-risking gone too far.” He said.

What Comes Next?

Li Qiang’s speech captured the uncertainty and the urgency shaping today’s global economy.

His message was clear: as the world moves through a new era of fragmentation, climate transition, and economic rebalancing, cooperation and clarity will be more important than ever.