ANALYSIS - Asia's pledge to boost US farm imports may redraw trade flows

While Indonesia and Bangladesh have already agreed to increased buying as part of agreements that set lowered tariffs on their exports to the U.S., regional grains traders say Vietnam, the Philippines and Thailand may boost feed grain purchases under their deals.

"U.S. farm exports are clearly set to gain ground in Asia," said Ole Houe, director of advisory services at IKON Commodities in Sydney. "On one hand, trade deals are creating pressure, but just as important are the lower prices of U.S. wheat, corn and soymeal, which are cheaper than supplies from rival exporters."

Asia, a net food importer, is a vital market for global suppliers, as the region's consumption is rising with growing population and incomes. Asia accounts for about 30% of world wheat, corn and soymeal imports, according to U.S. Department of Agriculture data.

An influx of U.S. crops could push down prices for rivals and drive up costs for them to ship grains at greater distances, traders and analysts said.

Over the past decade, suppliers from the Black Sea and South America have gained ground in Asia, eating into U.S. market share.

The U.S. share of Indonesian wheat shipments has fallen by almost 50% in the past five years, replaced by imports from Ukraine, Russia and Argentina, according to data from the Indonesian Wheat Flour Producers Association.

But Indonesian flour millers have bought about 250,000 metric tons of U.S. wheat since July, according to two Singapore-based grain traders. The association signed a memorandum of understanding then to buy 1 million tons of U.S. wheat annually as part of trade negotiations to gain lower tariffs. In 2024, the U.S. sold 693,000 tons to Indonesia.

"Prices are key as these will be private deals by millers but getting one million tons of U.S. wheat will not be a problem for us," said an association official, declining to be named as they were not authorised to speak to media.

Australia supplies about a quarter of Indonesia's wheat and could lose several hundred thousand tons in sales, said three Australian-based grains traders, though exporters further away may be impacted more. It exported 3 million tons there in 2024, the country's statistics bureau reported.

"If there are fewer sales of Australian wheat to Indonesia or Bangladesh that wheat is probably going to end up in places further away," said Tobin Gorey, founder of commodities consultancy Cornucopia in Australia.

VIETNAM DEALS

Bangladesh has approved imports of about 220,000 tons of U.S. wheat, a food ministry official in Dhaka said on July 30. Bangladesh committed on July 20 to import 700,000 tons of American wheat annually to strengthen trade ties, up from virtually no purchases in 2024.

Vietnam, one of the fastest-growing animal feed markets, is likely to import U.S. wheat, corn and soymeal, the Singapore-based traders said.

In June, Vietnam's agriculture ministry said firms will sign memorandums of understanding to buy $2 billion of U.S. farm produce, including five agreements to buy $800 million of products from Iowa, including corn, wheat, dried distillers grains and soybean meal.

It is not clear that the agreements were formally signed.

Argentina is currently Vietnam's leading grains supplier, accounting for more than 50% of its corn and 65% of its soymeal imports over the past five years.

Vietnam has increased its U.S. corn purchases for the 2024/25 marketing year that ends on August 31, taking 1.1 million tons, with another 19,051 tons set for delivery by the end of the month, according to USDA data.

For the 2025/26 marketing year, Vietnamese importers have booked 134,000 tons as opposed to only 2,000 tons booked at this time last year for the 2024/25 period.

FEED CORN

Thailand and the Philippines could also emerge as key importers of U.S. corn, the two Singapore-based traders said.

One of the traders said purchases tied to trade deals could lead to Thailand buying more than 1 million tons of U.S. feed corn, based on what would be needed to replace their current purchases of feed wheat from the Black Sea and feed corn from Asia.

Philippine corn purchases could be higher as its needs to replace 3.3 million tons of feed wheat, though its buying will depend on lowering its corn tariffs, the trader said.

In July, after the two sides announced a trade agreement, a senior economic and trade adviser to Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. said tariffs on imports from the U.S. of corn, rice, sugar, fish, pork, and chicken have not been removed.

After announcing a U.S. trade agreement on August 1, the Thai finance minister said the country will import up to 2 million tons of U.S. soybeans. There have been no further details on the Thai soybean purchases though.

"There have been productive trade discussions which present an opportunity for the U.S. to strengthen its access to markets in our region," said Timothy Loh, the U.S. Soybean Export Council's regional director for Southeast Asia & Oceania.

"We are anticipating higher demand for U.S. products such as soymeal and other U.S. agricultural exports into Southeast Asia."

Some U.S. agriculture products are price competitive with other regions. U.S. soft white wheat this week was offered at about $280 per ton on a cost and freight (C&F) basis, the same as similar quality Black Sea wheat.

U.S. corn is about $10-$15 a ton less than South American products while U.S. soymeal is at a $5 discount to rival suppliers, according to one of the Singapore-based grain traders.