ANALYSIS - Japan's Takaichi faces early test of defence ambitions with Trump visit

Takaichi, an admirer of conservative British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher, was sworn in on Tuesday as head of a government that is two votes shy of a majority in the decision-making 465-seat lower house.

"She is conservative, wants to increase defence spending, and has styled herself the Japan First candidate. If she has a vulnerability with Trump, it is her relative weakness at home," said Professor Michael Green, head of the United States Studies Centre in Australia and a former senior U.S. National Security Council official.

Takaichi has only a few days to prepare for her first face-to-face talks with Trump since becoming Japan's first female prime minister on Tuesday. They may cross paths at the ASEAN regional bloc summit in Malaysia on Sunday before holding formal talks in Tokyo early next week.

"She certainly will be experiencing a baptism of fire on the diplomatic front," a senior U.S. diplomat told Reuters, asking not to be identified because he is not authorised to speak publicly.

UNSHACKLED BY MOVE TO PARTNER ISHIN

A follower of assassinated Japanese premier and Trump confidant Shinzo Abe, Takaichi ended the ruling Liberal Democratic Party’s 26-year coalition with the pacifist-leaning Komeito, replacing it with the right-wing Japan Innovation Party, known as Ishin.

"Komeito always served as a brake and now you have two coalition partners that are pretty much aligned," said Jeffrey Hornung, an expert on Japanese security policy at the RAND Corporation.

The shift frees Takaichi to push Abe-era security reforms further.

Like her, Ishin wants to revise Japan's pacifist constitution, strengthen the military to deter China and loosen restrictions on arms exports.

Ishin has even floated a U.S.-style nuclear-sharing deal that would give Tokyo a say over any U.S. weapons deployed in Japan. That would be a radical departure from Japan's long-held three non-nuclear principles of not developing, deploying or hosting such weapons.

Takaichi has signaled she will accelerate Japan's largest military buildup since World War Two, doubling defence spending to 2% of GDP. She has said a "contingency" in Taiwan, which Beijing says must eventually be reunited with the mainland, would be a contingency for both Japan and the United States.

"Managing relations with China will be a major hurdle for her," said Kenji Minemura, a senior research fellow at the Canon Institute for Global Studies. "The loss of Komeito, which maintained ties with Beijing, is another setback."

China's response to Takaichi, a frequent visitor to the Yasukuni war shrine that Beijijng views a symbol of past militarism, expressed concern about Japan's commitment to peace and self-defence.

"We urge Japan to reflect on its history of aggression, adhere to the path of peace, and exercise caution in its words and deeds in the field of military and security,"Guo Jiakun, a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson, said in a news briefing.

The upcoming Trump meeting gives Takaichi a chance to outline her regional security goals before Trump meets Chinese leader Xi Jinping next week ahead of the annual Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in South Korea.

RELIANCE ON OPPOSITION PARTIES FOR SUPPORT

Her political weakness, however, will limit how much she can promise Trump on defence spending, said Tokyo University professor Ryo Sahashi.

"Speeding up the buildup was always on the cards, but the real issue is the budget," he said. "It's doubtful a government with such a weak footing can decide to jump to 3%."

While Takaichi won enough votes to become prime minister, her bloc will still have to shop around for opposition support to pass key bills, a challenge Abe never faced.

"If Trump pushes her for a specific number, it could cause early friction," said Hornung. "It wouldn't surprise me if he says, you’re an ally, you need to do 3%, even 5%."

To win Trump's favour, which could bolster her standing at home, Takaichi instead plans to present a package of U.S. purchases, including Ford F-150 pickup trucks, soybeans, natural gas and a list of potential U.S. investments, sources earlier told Reuters.

While Takaichi and the LDP will miss the presence of Abe, who was assassinated in 2022, his widow Akie will be there to meet Trump. Takaichi's officials may even take the U.S. leader to the golf course he and Abe played at in 2019 during his last visit, local media reported.