ANALYSIS - Trump's public shrug over drone incursion in Poland fuels unease in Europe

Just as worrisome, said European diplomats, has been U.S. President Donald Trump's refusal so far to publicly hold Moscow accountable for Wednesday's incident, coupled with the lack of U.S. participation in fending it off.

Many alliance members already question Trump's commitment to their defense in the event of an actual Russian attack.

Trump’s muted response was widely seen as another example of his “America First” push for European allies to take more responsibility for their own security and shoulder the cost of helping Ukraine defend itself against Russia.

But some analysts said Trump also could be wary of antagonizing Russian President Vladimir Putin, who they say may be testing both NATO’s military capabilities and U.S. resolve more than three and a half years after Moscow invaded Ukraine.

“This episode underscores that Trump, in contrast to every president since Roosevelt, does not see Europe’s security is fundamental to American security,” said Ivo Daalder, the U.S. ambassador to NATO from 2009 to 2013, who is now a senior fellow at Harvard’s Belfer Center.

The White House did not reply directly to questions about Trump's response.

But a White House official said on condition of anonymity that the president "wants this war, which was brought on by Joe Biden’s incompetence, to end as quickly as possible" and that it is up to Russia and Ukraine to halt the conflict and for Europe to "do its part by putting economic pressure on countries that finance the war.”

Poland, backed by aircraft from other NATO members, shot down at least 19 drones that had entered its airspace on Wednesday, the first time a member of the Western military alliance is known to have fired during Russia's war in Ukraine.

Russia said its forces had been attacking Ukraine at the time and that it had not intended to hit any targets in Poland.

In any other era since the dawn of the Cold War, such an incident likely would have set off alarms in Washington, triggering a swift response, diplomats and analysts say.

But Trump, who has a history of questioning the NATO alliance that Washington has led since its creation after World War Two, answered with what some European officials privately said amounted to a public shrug.

“What’s with Russia violating Poland’s airspace with drones? Here we go!,” Trump posted cryptically on his Truth Social platform.

A day later, pressed by reporters about the Russian drone incursion, Trump said: "It could have been a mistake."

But Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, in a rare contradiction of the U.S. president from one of Washington's closest European allies, on Friday flatly rejected the notion that the drones could have entered Poland in error.

Later on Friday, the U.S. joined Western allies in a joint statement to express concern about the incursion and accuse Moscow of violating international law and the founding U.N. Charter.

TEPID RESPONSE

Trump's initial response to the Russian drones contrasts with previous U.S. reactions to threats against the alliance.

When initial reports suggested that a stray Russian missile had struck a Polish village in November 2022, President Joe Biden quickly convened an emergency meeting of world leaders as he and his advisers shifted into crisis-management mode.Biden cautioned against jumping to conclusions, and it was later determined to have been a Ukrainian air-defense missile that had misfired during a Russian attack.

Trump’s language this week was also milder than the condemnation by several European leaders and even that of his ambassador to NATO, Matthew Whitaker, who in a post on X pledged the defense of “every inch of NATO territory.”

Trump did speak late on Wednesday with Polish President Karol Nawrocki, who said the U.S. leader reaffirmed solidarity with Warsaw. But Nawrocki's post on X made no mention of any offer of new weapons or equipment. The White House provided no readout of the phone call.

On Friday in Brussels, NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte, announcing plans to beef up the defense of the alliance’s eastern flank, said Trump had made “absolutely clear that we all stand together on this” and that he was satisfied with the U.S. response.

Despite that, the view in Europe of Trump’s handling of the incident has ranged from dismay to confusion and unease, according to multiple diplomatic sources who spoke on condition of anonymity.

A senior German official said the U.S. had been involved in drone discussions with NATO allies but appeared to be “hesitant.” “With this U.S. administration, we can’t rely on anything. But we have to pretend that we could,” the official said.

An Eastern European diplomat said: “No one in NATO has been particularly reassured by the U.S. at this point. Washington’s silence has been almost deafening."

An Italian official, whose country’s AWACS surveillance planes helped detect the drones over Poland, said alliance members had a mostly negative impression of the U.S. response so far but they were avoiding open criticism.

WAKE-UP CALL FOR EUROPE

At the same time, some European officials and analysts portrayed the drone incursion, which many saw as a Russian attempt to probe NATO defenses, as a wake-up call for the continent.

"The drone attack showed that we are not ready for defense against drones,” the senior German official told Reuters. “We have to develop capabilities as soon as possible."

Anders Fogh Rasmussen, NATO secretary general from 2009 to 2014, acknowledged that Europe is uneasy but said there is recognition that now is the moment for Europe to step up.

"That means deploying real assets, investing directly in Ukraine’s defense industry, and providing concrete security guarantees and a reassurance force inside Ukraine,” he said. Still, “the United States must remain engaged.”

Other issues have been competing for Trump's attention this week.

On the same day as the Poland drone incursion, he and much of his staff were stunned by news of the killing of a leading conservative activist ally, Charlie Kirk. Trump delivered a video message from the Oval Office that night.

Russia was clearly back on Trump’s agenda on Friday, as he told Fox News that his patience with Putin was “running out fast” – though he stopped short of threatening new sanctions over the Ukraine war.

Trump has repeatedly set deadlines for Moscow to agree a ceasefire with Ukraine or face new sanctions, only to row back. He warmly welcomed Putin at what was billed by the White House as a peace summit in Alaska in mid-August but failed to secure major concessions.

U.S. warplanes played no role in shooting down the drones that violated Polish airspace, U.S. officials said. It was an absence that some European diplomats found worrisome but which U.S. officials said was because the Dutch military was responsible for Polish air space at the time under NATO’s air policing mission.

Trump’s apparent decision to let the Europeans take the lead in the ongoing response echoes his recent approach on Russia sanctions. He has pressured European countries to do more before the U.S. will further tighten the economic screws on Moscow.

While NATO says it is still assessing the intent behind the drone incident, Trump’s commitment to European security could be further tested if Putin does not heed the alliance’s warnings.

Poland said on Wednesday it had activated Article 4 of NATO's treaty, under which alliance members can demand consultations with their allies when a member’s territorial integrity or security, is threatened.