China's exports top expectations on strong sales to non-US markets

BEIJING: China's exports topped forecasts in November, driven by a surge in shipments to non-U.S. markets as manufacturers deepen trade ties with the rest of the world in light of President Donald Trump's prohibitively high tariffs.

AI Brief

China's exports rose 5.9% year-on-year in November, reversing October's decline and surpassing expectations.
Imports grew 1.9%, but shipments to the US fell 29% despite recent tariff rollback talks between Trump and Xi.
Trade surplus hit US$111.68 billion as exporters struggle with weak US demand and prolonged factory contraction.

Outbound shipments from the world's second-biggest economy grew 5.9% year-on-year, customs data showed on Monday, reversing from a 1.1% contraction a month prior, and beating a 3.8% forecast in a Reuters poll.

Imports were up 1.9%, compared to a 1.0% uptick in October. Economists had expected a 3.0% increase.

"There's no improvement in China's direct exports to the U.S.. Exports to the European Union, Africa and Latin America outperformed instead," said Xu Tianchen, senior economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit.

Chinese shipments to the U.S. dropped 29% in November year-on-year, the data shows, even though the month began with news that the United States and China had agreed to scale back some of their tariffs and a raft of other measures after Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping met in South Korea on October 30.

Economists estimate that diminished access to the U.S. market has reduced China's export growth by roughly 2 percentage points, equivalent to around 0.3% of GDP.

October's unexpected downturn, following an 8.3% surge the month prior, signalled that Chinese exporters' tactic of front-loading U.S.-bound shipments to beat Trump's tariffs had run its course.

Although Chinese factory owners reported an improvement in new export orders in November, they were still in contraction, underscoring continued uncertainty for manufacturers as they struggle to replace demand in the absence of U.S. buyers.

An official survey tracking broader factory activity showed that the sector contracted for an eighth consecutive month.

China's trade surplus stood at US$111.68 billion in November, from $90.07 billion recorded the previous month, and beating a forecast of US$100.2 billion.