China’s 'shadow navy' trains to take Taiwan

The arsenal of weapons on display during the People's Liberation Army's parade included amphibious assault vehicles that would be crucial for seizing control of Taiwan.

In his keynote speech at the parade, Chinese President Xi Jinping did not mention Taiwan, but gaining control over the island is a paramount goal for the Chinese leader and his ruling Communist Party. China views democratically governed Taiwan as part of its territory and has never renounced the use of force to take control of the island. Taiwan’s government rejects China’s claims, saying that only the island’s people can decide their future.

Reuters monitored China's shadow navy of civilian ships that joined the annual military exercises this year to rehearse for an invasion of Taiwan. The drills, which began in mid-July, revealed that China’s military is trialling a new strategy with these ships.

Throughout the summer, Reuters tracked the movements of more than 100 civilian vessels that have participated in drills or are owned by operators that often participate in military exercises.

Satellite images obtained by Reuters showed a beach landing operation under way and vessels practising landing techniques on a beach near the town of Jiesheng in Guangdong province, close to what appears to be a Chinese military base.

A swarm of these civilian vessels could sharply boost the size of the forces deployed for an invasion and potentially enable China to carry out assaults at a bigger number of sites on Taiwan, according to Taiwanese and U.S. experts on amphibious warfare.

Admiral Lee Hsi-min, a former chief of Taiwan’s armed forces and one of the island’s leading thinkers on defence and security, said the satellite images of the August exercises revealed the PLA was now experimenting with craft smaller than the bigger civilian vessels used in earlier drills.

Civilian ships could provide logistical support during an invasion.

The vessels could "(haul) stuff, beans, bullets, bandages, fuel, things that are very hard to move but have to be moved in bulk", retired U.S. Marine Lieutenant General Wallace Gregson said.

China’s quest to gain control over Taiwan is at the centre of intensifying rivalry between Beijing and Washington for dominance in the Asia-Pacific region. From tiny, sparsely populated atolls deep in the Pacific Ocean, to the strategic archipelagos of Japan and the Philippines, China and the U.S. are engaged in preparations for a potentially fateful showdown.

A successful invasion could garner immense domestic prestige for the Communist Party. It could also mean China supplants the U.S. as Asia’s dominant power. However, it could also lead to disaster with China at war with the United States and its key allies, a conflict that would almost certainly convulse the global economy. Military failures could also threaten the party’s hold on power.

“The Taiwan question is purely an internal affair of China, and how to resolve it is entirely a matter for the Chinese people,” the foreign ministry in Beijing said in response to questions. China is willing “to pursue the prospect of peaceful reunification, but we will never allow anyone or any force to separate Taiwan from China by any means whatsoever,” the ministry said.

In response to questions, Taiwan's defence ministry referred Reuters to comments made in September by Defence Minister Wellington Koo, who said that the island maintains "continuous oversight" of China's use of roll-on, roll-off vessels.

"We closely monitor how they support military operations," Koo said, adding that Taiwan has "developed relevant contingency plans".

The outcome of a Chinese attack could depend heavily on the response of the U.S., the island’s most important ally. For decades, Washington refused to say how it would react to an invasion, a policy dubbed “strategic ambiguity”.

Former U.S. President Joe Biden appeared to break with this policy, confirming on a number of occasions during his term that U.S. forces would defend Taiwan if it were attacked.

Asked about President Donald Trump’s position on Taiwan, a White House spokesman said: “The policy of the United States is to maintain Taiwan’s defensive capability relative to that of China. And as the president has said, Chairman Xi Jinping will not attack Taiwan while President Trump is in office.”

The Chinese defence ministry did not respond to questions for this story.