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Climate change, economic anxiety, superpower tensions top ASEAN’s worries in 2025 - ISEAS Survey
Climate change, economic uncertainty & the geopolitical tug-of-war between the United States and China are the top three concerns for Southeast Asia in 2025, according to the annual State of Southeast Asia Survey by the ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute
Climate change, economic uncertainty, and the geopolitical tug-of-war between the United States and China are the top three concerns for Southeast Asia in 2025, according to the annual State of Southeast Asia Survey released by the ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute.
For the first time since the survey’s inception in 2019, climate change and extreme weather events ranked as the most pressing issue in the region, cited by 55.3% of respondents. This reflects growing alarm over the tangible impacts of rising sea levels, droughts, and typhoons, particularly in vulnerable nations like the Philippines (70.9%) and Vietnam (70.3%).
Closely following are concerns over unemployment and economic recession (49.3%) and intensifying economic tensions between major powers (48.3%), which many respondents see as two sides of the same coin. These anxieties underscore the fragile state of Southeast Asia’s economy as it navigates global inflationary pressures, uneven post-pandemic recovery, and trade fragmentation.
US-China Rivalry: A Close Race for ASEAN’s Affection
In a key geopolitical insight, the United States narrowly edged out China as the preferred superpower if the region were forced to align with one. 52.3% chose the US, compared to 47.7% for China—a reversal from the previous year. While China remains the most influential economic and political-strategic power, the region is growing increasingly wary of its assertiveness.
Notably, China topped the list in terms of strategic relevance (mean score of 8.80 out of 11), but the US was close behind at 8.76. The report also found that while China leads in hard power, its trust deficit remains significant: 41.2% of respondents distrust China, with nearly half of them citing concerns that Beijing could use its economic and military clout to threaten sovereignty.
ASEAN: Relevance at Risk?
The survey also reveals regional disquiet about ASEAN’s role in this shifting landscape. 35.0% believe ASEAN is too slow and ineffective to respond to fast-moving political and economic developments, rendering it at risk of becoming irrelevant. Another 29.8% fear the bloc may become a playground for major power competition, with member states potentially serving as proxies.
There is strong consensus (69.5%) that ASEAN should uphold international law in the South China Sea, especially the 2016 Arbitral Tribunal ruling, and take a principled stand on regional security. Support for joint military exercises as a deterrent also grew to 46.1%, highlighting ASEAN’s balancing act amid rising regional tensions.
The 2025 survey captured views from 2,023 thought leaders and policy influencers across all ten ASEAN member states and Timor-Leste, which is on the cusp of formal admission into the bloc. The responses were collected before President Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ between January and February 2025, during the start of Trump’s second term.
Full report here: https://www.iseas.edu.sg/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/The-State-of-SEA-2025-1.pdf
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For the first time since the survey’s inception in 2019, climate change and extreme weather events ranked as the most pressing issue in the region, cited by 55.3% of respondents. This reflects growing alarm over the tangible impacts of rising sea levels, droughts, and typhoons, particularly in vulnerable nations like the Philippines (70.9%) and Vietnam (70.3%).
Closely following are concerns over unemployment and economic recession (49.3%) and intensifying economic tensions between major powers (48.3%), which many respondents see as two sides of the same coin. These anxieties underscore the fragile state of Southeast Asia’s economy as it navigates global inflationary pressures, uneven post-pandemic recovery, and trade fragmentation.
US-China Rivalry: A Close Race for ASEAN’s Affection
In a key geopolitical insight, the United States narrowly edged out China as the preferred superpower if the region were forced to align with one. 52.3% chose the US, compared to 47.7% for China—a reversal from the previous year. While China remains the most influential economic and political-strategic power, the region is growing increasingly wary of its assertiveness.
Notably, China topped the list in terms of strategic relevance (mean score of 8.80 out of 11), but the US was close behind at 8.76. The report also found that while China leads in hard power, its trust deficit remains significant: 41.2% of respondents distrust China, with nearly half of them citing concerns that Beijing could use its economic and military clout to threaten sovereignty.
ASEAN: Relevance at Risk?
The survey also reveals regional disquiet about ASEAN’s role in this shifting landscape. 35.0% believe ASEAN is too slow and ineffective to respond to fast-moving political and economic developments, rendering it at risk of becoming irrelevant. Another 29.8% fear the bloc may become a playground for major power competition, with member states potentially serving as proxies.
There is strong consensus (69.5%) that ASEAN should uphold international law in the South China Sea, especially the 2016 Arbitral Tribunal ruling, and take a principled stand on regional security. Support for joint military exercises as a deterrent also grew to 46.1%, highlighting ASEAN’s balancing act amid rising regional tensions.
The 2025 survey captured views from 2,023 thought leaders and policy influencers across all ten ASEAN member states and Timor-Leste, which is on the cusp of formal admission into the bloc. The responses were collected before President Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ between January and February 2025, during the start of Trump’s second term.
Full report here: https://www.iseas.edu.sg/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/The-State-of-SEA-2025-1.pdf
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