Graham Allison Warns of Eroding Nuclear Restraint at WEF Tianjin 2025

TIANJIN, China: Speaking at the World Economic Forum’s Annual Meeting of the New Champions (AMNC) in Tianjin, renowned geopolitical strategist and Harvard professor Graham Allison issued a stark warning about the eroding foundations of global nuclear restraint.

AI Brief

Only nine countries possess nuclear weapons today, a result of decades of deliberate global cooperation and restraint.
Allison warns that many nations could rapidly develop nukes if norms collapse, highlighting the fragility of the current system.
Rising nationalism and weakened multilateralism threaten the stability of the post-war non-proliferation framework.

During a panel titled “Geopolitics: An Unfolding Story”, Allison reflected on the decades since the bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, an era that, he argued, has seen an “unnatural” but vital success: the prevention of widespread nuclear proliferation.

“If you look at what’s happened in the last 80 years since Hiroshima and Nagasaki, one of the most remarkable achievements of global statecraft is that only nine countries today possess nuclear weapons,” Allison told the panel.

He highlighted the paradox of restraint in an age where nuclear technology is not only old but increasingly accessible.

“If North Korea can develop nuclear weapons, then frankly, who couldn’t?” he asked rhetorically.

Allison noted that more than 90 states could feasibly develop nuclear arsenals within a year if they chose to. Yet most abstain, something he attributes not to technological limitations, but to an enduring, fragile system of norms, treaties, and deterrence.

“It’s not natural. Why wouldn’t South Korea, Iran, or Ukraine arm themselves with nuclear weapons for protection? The answer lies in decades of deliberate international cooperation, including the work of the IAEA, extended deterrence guarantees, and the broader non-proliferation regime.” He said.

Allison reminded the audience that it was precisely this fear a world of 90 nuclear states that haunted U.S. President John F. Kennedy after the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962. That moment sparked a series of arms control initiatives that helped stabilize global security for decades.

But now, Allison warns, that stability is showing signs of erosion.

“We’ve started to take it all for granted as if non-proliferation is self-sustaining, It’s not. It’s unraveling quietly at the edges.” He added.

His remarks serve as a timely reminder that today’s geopolitical challenges—rising nationalism, eroding multilateralism, and regional arms races are not just economic or diplomatic concerns, but existential ones.

As tensions mount in flashpoints from the Korean Peninsula to the Middle East, Allison’s message was clear: the post-war nuclear restraint that has held for generations may not hold forever.