Handling the ultra-right-wing march an acid test to measure the longevity of Israel's new coalition government

After being the longest serving prime minister reigning like a king for 12 years despite being indicted of a first-degree corruption, he is now reduced to an Opposition Leader.

In his last speech at the Knesset as prime minister, Netanyahu was defiant in vowing to crush the fragile coalition whom he described as dangerous and fraudulent, while putting heavy pressure on the coalition’s right-wing members to return to his side, warning that the new government would not be able to stand up to the security threats Israel would face, particularly from Iran.

“The prime minister of Israel must be able to say no to the American government,” Netanyahu warned, referring to attempts by the Biden administration to revive the Iran nuclear deal.

US president Joe Biden must take note of this intransigence, in fact all Americans and Israelis should take note of this ungratefulness in bilateral relations on Netanyahu’s part, after all the economic and financial aids that Israel has gotten from the US.

Analysts have opined that a comeback by Netanyahu is very possible because of the slimmest majority that the new coalition government has and that there is nothing to bind them together except for their unity in not wanting to see Netanyahu back in power.

But the same analysts too had predicted about the dramatic change in Netanyahu’s fortune when on the eve of his latest offensive against the Palestinians in an 11-day war – the fourth war in just over a decade – the long-time Israel leader’s political career seemed all but over. He had failed to form a coalition government following a stalemate in a March general election, and his political rivals were on the cusp of pushing him out of office.

But with the onset of the latest offensive against the Palestinians – some said it was his deadly politicking to remain in power at all cost – back then many said his rivals’ prospects have crumbled, as Netanyahu was back in his comfortable role as Mr Security, and the country could soon be headed for yet another election campaign that would guarantee him at least several more months in office.

Fate has finally dealt a blow to the mighty and arrogance Netanyahu who made many empty promises to his fellow right-wing colleagues, which has resulted in the unprecedented transformation of the right wingers to even consider an Islamist partner in the coalition government – the United Arab List (UAL), also known by its Hebrew acronym Ra’am, led by Mansour Abbas (no relation to the Palestinian Authority President, Mahmoud Abbas).

But it was the Machiavellian politicking of Netanyahu that has paved the way for an Islamist party to be included in the government because he was the first Jewish premier who had approached the UAL in April 2019, after years of incitement against Arab citizens and leaders.

At that time Netanyahu wanted to break up the “Joint List” or coalition of four Arab parties that included UAL and he needed the four Knesset seats held by Abbas to form a narrow coalition in the next elections.

They held numerous talks. Abbas was promised budgets and resources to deal with the severe problems that Israeli Arabs face in crime, violence and lack of housing – resulting in senior ministers in Netanyahu’s Likud party talking about how important Jewish-Arab coexistence was.

As usual with Netanyahu who is best at giving empty promises, the talks did not produce a government, but according to Abbas, they gave him a kosher stamp for the Change bloc to invite him into its coalition which showed others across the political spectrum that his party, and his movement, had legitimacy.

“If you do a move like that with the right-wing, then of course you can do it with the left wing,” he said in an interview with Time magazine on June 11.

Compounding the problem further for the coalition, the current Prime Minister, Naftali Bennett, has a political view which is even to the right of Netanyahu, in wanting to annex part of the West Bank occupied by Israel which the Palestinians and the world have agreed is to be part of the territory that would go to the Palestinian Authority in a two-state solution.

While it is true that the fragility of the make-up of the coalition government comprising different and contradictory perspectives and stances on many issues may make the return of Netanyahu a breeze, it is also equally true that the one thing that binds the coalition strongly together is the spectre of Netanyahu’s return to power, which the coalition will prevent at all cost.

The immediate yardstick to measure the stability and longevity of the new coalition government lies in how it handles the flag waving procession of the far-right Israeli groups march in East Jerusalem on Tuesday (June 15) that risks igniting tensions with Palestinians in the contested city and rekindling violence between Israel and the Palestinians.

All over Gaza and the Israeli-occupied West Bank, the march is considered as a provocation and many Palestinians have called for a day of rage against the event, with Hamas who rules Gaza warning of renewed hostilities if it goes ahead.

"We warn of the dangerous repercussions that may result from the occupying power's intention to allow extremist Israeli settlers to carry out the Flag March in occupied Jerusalem," Palestinian Prime Minister Mohammad Shtayyeh said on Twitter.

An original march was re-routed to avoid the walled Old City's Muslim Quarter on May 10 when tensions in Jerusalem led Hamas to fire rockets at Israel, setting off 11 days of deadly fighting.

Meanwhile, a route change or cancelling the procession could expose the new Israeli government to accusations from its right-wing opponents of giving Hamas veto power over events in Jerusalem.

Deputy internal security minister Yoav Segalovitz said past governments had stopped nationalists visiting Muslim sites in times of tension. "The main thing is to consider what's the right thing to do at this time," he told Israel's Kan radio.

The right thing to do for all members of the Cabinet in the coalition government is to stop the march. How many marches do the extreme right-wingers want, taking into account one had already been done with a changed route on May 10?

It’s time the right-wing leaders of Israel’s new government should learnt not to pander to the unreasonable demands of their extreme right-wing constituents when the stakes are too high – war again with the Palestinians in a world that has changed its view towards the Palestinians plus the return of the much-hated Netanyahu when he will again indulge in politicking by taking advantage of the coalition’s disunity over the issue.

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Jamari Mohtar is Director, Media & Communications at EMIR Research, a think tank focused on strategic policy recommendations based on rigorous research.