Hezbollah faces long recovery, officials believe thousands of fighters killed

Hezbollah believes the number of its fighters killed during 14 months of hostilities could reach several thousand, with the vast majority killed since Israel went on the offensive in September, three sources familiar with its operations say, citing previously unreported internal estimates.

One source said the Iran-backed group may have lost up to 4,000 people - well over 10 times the number killed in its month-long 2006 war with Israel. So far, Lebanese authorities have said some 3,800 people were killed in the current hostilities, without distinguishing fighters from civilians.

Hezbollah emerges shaken from top to bottom, its leadership still reeling from the killing of its former leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah and its supporters made homeless en masse by the carpet bombing of Beirut's southern suburbs and the destruction of entire villages in the south.

With a ceasefire taking hold on Wednesday, Hezbollah's agenda includes working to re-establish its organisational structure fully, probing security breaches that helped Israel land so many painful blows, and a full review of the last year including its mistakes in underestimating Israel's technological capabilities, three other sources familiar with the group's thinking said.

For this story Reuters spoke to a dozen people who together provided details of some of the challenges facing Hezbollah as it seeks to pick itself up after the war. Most asked not to be named to speak about sensitive matters.

Hassan Fadallah, a senior Hezbollah politician, told Reuters the priority will be "the people."

"To shelter them, to remove the rubble, to bid farewell to the martyrs and, in the next phase, to rebuild," he said.

Israel's campaign has focused largely on Hezbollah's Shi'ite Muslim heartlands, where its supporters were badly hit. They include people still nursing casualties from Israel's attack on its mobile communications devices in September.

"I have a brother who was martyred, a brother-in-law who was wounded in the pager attacks, and my neighbours and relatives are all either martyrs, wounded or missing," said Hawraa, a woman from south Lebanon with family members who fight for Hezbollah.

"We want to collect our martyrs and bury them ... we want to rebuild our homes," said Hawraa, who stayed in her village until she was forced to flee by the Israeli assault in September. She declined to use her full name, citing safety fears.

The Israeli offensive displaced more than 1 million people, the bulk of them from areas where Hezbollah has sway.

A senior Lebanese official familiar with Hezbollah thinking said the group's focus would be squarely on securing their return and rebuilding their homes: "Hezbollah is like a wounded man. Does a wounded man get up and fight? A wounded man needs to tend to his wounds."

The official expected Hezbollah to carry out a wide-ranging policy review after the war, dealing with all major issues: Israel, its weapons, and the internal politics of Lebanon, where its weapons have long been a point of conflict.

Iran, which established Hezbollah in 1982, has promised to help with reconstruction. The costs are immense: The World Bank estimates $2.8 billion in damage to housing alone in Lebanon, with 99,000 homes partially or fully destroyed.

The senior Lebanese official said Tehran has a variety of ways to get funds to Hezbollah, without giving details.

Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, a close Hezbollah ally, is urging wealthy Lebanese Shi'ites in the diaspora to send funds to help the displaced, two Lebanese officials said.

The officials also expected significant donations to come from Shi'ite religious foundations across the region.

Hezbollah did not immediately respond to a detailed request for comment for this story. Iran's foreign ministry did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

'THE RESISTANCE' WILL CONTINUE

Hezbollah has indicated it intends to keep its arms, dashing hopes of Lebanese adversaries who predicted the pressures generated by the war would finally lead it to hand them to the state. Hezbollah officials have said the resistance - widely understood to mean its armed status - will continue.

Hezbollah opened fire in support of Palestinian ally Hamas on Oct. 8, 2023. Israel went on the offensive against the group in September, declaring the aim of securing the return home of 60,000 people evacuated from homes in the north.

Despite the resulting devastation, Hezbollah's Fadlallah said the resistance put up by its fighters in south Lebanon and the group's intensified rocket salvoes towards the end of the conflict showed Israel had failed.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says its campaign has set back Hezbollah decades, eliminated its top leaders, destroyed most of its rockets, neutralised thousands of fighters, and obliterated its infrastructure near the border.

A senior U.S. official said Hezbollah was "extremely weak" at this moment, both militarily and politically. A Western diplomat echoed that assessment, saying Israel had the upper hand and had almost dictated the terms of its withdrawal.

The ceasefire terms agreed by Israel and Lebanon require Hezbollah to have no military presence in an area between the Israeli border and the Litani River, which meets the Mediterranean Sea some 30 km (20 miles) from the frontier.

Hezbollah, which approved the deal, has not declared how it intends to help implement those terms, including whether it actively hands its arms to Lebanese troops who are deploying into the south, or leaves the weapons for soldiers to find.

Israel complains Hezbollah, which is deeply rooted in south Lebanon, never implemented the same terms when they were agreed to end a previous war in 2006 war. Israel says the group was preparing for a large-scale assault into northern Israel, pointing to its military build-up at the frontier.

Andreas Krieg of King's College in London said Hezbollah had retained considerable capability.

The performance of its "core infantry fighters in southern Lebanon and rocket attacks deep into Israeli territory in recent days showed the group was still very, very capable," he said.

"But Hezbollah will be very much bogged down in the effort of rebuilding the infrastructure and also, most importantly, securing the funds to do so,” he said.

'REPAYING THE DEBT'

Hezbollah has been handing out cash to people affected by the hostilities since they began, paying $200 a month to civilians who stayed in frontline villages, and offering more as people were forced to flee the areas, according to recipients.

Since the start of the escalation in September, Hezbollah has been paying around $300 a month to help displaced families.

The group has made no secret of the military and financial support it gets from Iran, which shipped huge sums of cash to in 2006 to aid the homeless and help rebuild.

Hezbollah supporters say more will be on the way. One, citing conversations with a local Hezbollah official, said the group would cover a year of rent for the homeless in addition to furniture costs.

Addressing the Lebanese people in an October sermon, Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said "the destruction will be replaced... repaying the debt to the wounded, bleeding Lebanon is our duty...".

The World Bank, in a preliminary estimate, put the cost in damage and losses to Lebanon at $8.5 billion, a bill that cannot be footed by the government, still suffering the consequences of a catastrophic financial collapse five years ago.

Gulf states Qatar, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia helped pay the $5 billion reconstruction bill in 2006, the last time Hezbollah and Israel went to war. But there has been no sign that these Sunni-led Arab states are ready to do so again.

Hezbollah conducted a lot of reconstruction work after the 2006 war, financed by Iran and using its construction wing. The project was directed by Sayyed Hashem Safieddine, a Hezbollah leader killed by Israel 11 days after Nasrallah, in a sign of the bigger challenges it will face this time round.

"For Hezbollah the priority is to guarantee the loyalty of the Shi’ite community. The destruction has been enormous and it will impact the organization," said Mohanand Hage Ali of the Carnegie Middle East Center.