How Trump's Venezuela embargo could put Taiwan at risk

The U.S. president on Tuesday ordered the "total and complete blockade" of all sanctioned oil tankers entering and leaving Venezuela, a move aimed at choking the Maduro government's main source of income. But the action immediately raised questions under international law about whether it amounts to an act of war.

In the Indo-Pacific, military planners have long feared that China might use a naval blockade to coerce democratically governed Taiwan to accept Beijing's rule.

While China considers Taiwan its own territory and would be unlikely to lean on international law to justify military action toward the island, experts say Beijing could exploit a U.S. blockade of Venezuela to undercut any American efforts to drum up international diplomatic opposition to such a move in the Taiwan Strait.

"If the U.S. blockades to change political outcomes in Venezuela, China can justify coercive measures against Taiwan on so-called security grounds," said Craig Singleton, a China expert at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies in Washington.

"The legal contexts differ, but the propaganda opening is real," he said, adding that precedent in international relations is set not only by law, but also by narrative.

"When Washington blurs terms, it weakens its ability to call out coercion elsewhere," he said.

The blockade is the latest step in a recent U.S. military buildup that has included more than two dozen strikes on alleged drug boats to pressure Maduro and other senior Venezuelan officials, who the Trump administration says are linked to drug traffickers.

Maduro has alleged that the U.S. action is aimed at overthrowing him and gaining control of the OPEC nation's oil resources, which are the world's largest crude reserves.

"President Trump is prepared to use every element of American power to stop drugs from flooding into our country and to bring those responsible to justice," a White House official said in response to Reuters' questions without addressing the Taiwan issue.

China, the biggest buyer of Venezuelan crude, has sided with Venezuela, saying on Thursday that it "opposes all acts of unilateralism and bullying and supports countries in defending their sovereignty and national dignity."

CHINA PRACTICES BLOCKADES

Beijing has repeatedly signaled that a de facto naval blockade could be a central element of a campaign to gain control of Taiwan.

China's military has practiced blockade-style drills with increasing frequency in recent years around the island, whose government rejects Beijing's sovereignty claims.

To an international audience, Chinese officials would probably portray such a move around Taiwan as a domestic quarantine or law enforcement matter. Beijing rejects any parallels between Taiwan and other nations, including Ukraine, which is combating a Russian invasion.

Nonetheless, Taiwanese officials have said a Chinese blockade of Taiwan would be an act of war and have far-reaching consequences for international trade.

Washington, which has long opposed unilateral changes to the status quo over Taiwan, would also argue that Chinese naval encirclement of Taiwan would amount to a blockade.

The Trump administration's national security strategy released earlier in December called deterring conflict over Taiwan a priority due to its strategic location and economic importance.

Isaac Kardon, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace who studies China's maritime power, said Beijing would want to prevent the U.S. from building a global coalition to oppose Chinese action toward Taiwan. International concern about a U.S. blockade of Venezuela would be useful for China's effort.

"Ultimately, the U.S. is doing a lot of damage to the normative quality of the rules," Kardon said. "That is a major blow to the credibility of international law to restrain other actors."

Kardon said U.S. action on Venezuelan tankers could open the door for China to take similar actions, such as interdicting Taiwan-bound vessels carrying vital natural gas supplies.

"Everything about it muddies the waters," he said.

Protracted deployment to the Caribbean of U.S. naval assets could also undermine U.S. military readiness and its ability to respond to a crisis in the Taiwan Strait, experts told Reuters.

'REALPOLITIK'

Wartime blockades are permitted under international law, but only under strict conditions.

Milena Sterio, a maritime law expert at Cleveland State University's law school, said a full U.S. blockade of Venezuela would likely be illegal absent clear evidence that the U.S. was in armed conflict with the country.

"A U.S. blockade would undermine our ability to criticize a Chinese blockade of Taiwan," Sterio said. "The same rules of international law apply to all states and it would be inconsistent for the U.S. to criticize others for doing what we are doing."

But Michael Hunzeker, an expert on Taiwan's military deterrence at George Mason University, said he was skeptical that Trump's actions would hurt the effort that really matters: building U.S. allied support for counter-blockade efforts in a crisis over Taiwan.

Any reference by allies to Venezuela in that context, Hunzeker said, would likely be rhetorical justification for a realpolitik decision to remain on the sidelines.

"I highly doubt that this episode will significantly reshape how they assess those interests," he said.