Hungary's deal with U.S. deepens its Russia dilemma

While U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has clarified that the exemption is temporary, Orban has suggested it would remain in effect as long as Trump is in office.

Brussels-based geopolitical analyst Botond Feledy from Red Snow Consulting said continued access to Russian oil was crucial for Orban’s political standing, noting that several government-aligned entities have a stake in the profits of Russia’s energy sector.

“It is a very concrete outcome for the governing Fidesz party in the upcoming election year, whether they have these surpluses, both potentially in state budget and in government-aligned organisations,” he said on AWANI International.

The U.S. blacklisted two of Russia’s largest oil companies last month, threatening sanctions on any buyers.

Despite Moscow’s war in Ukraine over the last three years, Budapest, the Kremlin’s closest ally in the EU, still depends heavily on Russian energy imports.

It previously used its veto power to secure exemptions from the bloc’s sanctions targeting Russian energy. Russian leader Vladimir Putin also recently endorsed Orban at a public event, underscoring the close ties between the two leaders.

Orban announced on Friday that his government would challenge the EU’s decision to phase out Russian gas imports in court.

With the opposition leading in the polls ahead of elections in April 2026, the Prime Minister has pledged to provide cheap Russian energy to voters.

“The pressure on the opposition is growing every day. Orban is also trying all his spectrum of items and instruments to deploy against the opposition,” said Feledy.

Feledy added that Orban is seeking to project power by maintaining key relationships with Trump, Putin, and China’s Xi Jinping, while positioning himself to play a role in Trump’s attempts to negotiate with Russia over ending the war in Ukraine.

Plans for a U.S.-Russia summit in Budapest were recently put on hold, but Feledy said that should such talks take place, the meeting would primarily serve as a political and influence play by the Kremlin.

Speaking on the likelihood of such peace talks taking place, Feledy said it would serve more as a political and influence measure by the Kremlin.

A meeting in Budapest, he said, would allow Putin to enter a NATO and EU member state despite facing a global arrest warrant over alleged war crimes in Ukraine.

“Hungary is in the process of resigning from the International Criminal Courts Treaty, therefore already saying that they will not arrest Putin despite running legal international obligations.