IEA chief urges ASEAN to tap renewables, seize market shifts amid energy volatility

At the Singapore International Energy Week (SIEW) 2025, International Energy Agency (IEA) Executive Director Dr. Fatih Birol said ASEAN countries should act strategically amid a global oil surplus and falling renewable energy costs.

“If you want to be a price-maker, not a price-taker, it may take years to produce or export significant amounts of oil and gas. But what countries in the region can do now is make use of lower energy prices, particularly in oil,” Birol said.

He noted that despite geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, Ukraine and ongoing trade frictions, oil prices remain around USD 60 per barrel. The oversupply is driven by production growth from what Birol called the “American quintet”; the United States, Canada, Brazil, Argentina and Guyana, coupled with slowing demand from China and rising electric vehicle (EV) adoption.

Meanwhile, in Southeast Asia, electricity demand is projected to surge by 300 gigawatts over the next decade, equivalent to Japan’s total consumption.

Birol said much of this demand will come from air conditioning as incomes and temperatures rise.

“The key question is how this demand will be met. Of course, some of it will come from gas, and maybe some from nuclear, but fossil fuels will also remain part of the mix for now.”

Birol also advised countries to make the most of falling renewable energy costs and emerging technologies.

He added that improving energy efficiency in appliances and industrial systems, alongside the growing use of EVs, offers a clear opportunity to reduce dependency on oil and cut emissions.

He also highlighted the strategic importance of critical minerals used in clean technologies, semiconductors and defence systems as the way forward, warning of heavy reliance on a few countries for refining and processing.

“For energy security, my golden rule number one is diversification,” he said. “We need to diversify imports, trade partners and companies.”

The call for diversification comes as ASEAN nations work to balance rising energy demand with climate commitments, with regional collaboration seen as key to ensuring affordability and resilience.