INSIGHT - Under US pressure, Syria and Israel inch toward security deal

Washington is pushing for enough progress to be made by the time world leaders gather in New York for the U.N. General Assembly at the end of this month to allow President Donald Trump to announce a breakthrough, four of the sources told Reuters.

Even a modest agreement would be a feat, the sources said, pointing to Israel's tough stance during months of talks and Syria's weakened position after sectarian bloodshed in its south inflamed calls for partition.

Reuters spoke to nine sources familiar with the discussions and with Israel's operations in southern Syria, including Syrian military and political officials, two intelligence sources and an Israeli official.

They said Syria's proposal aims to secure the withdrawal of Israeli troops from territory seized in recent months, to reinstate a demilitarized buffer zone agreed in a 1974 truce, and to halt Israeli air strikes and ground incursions into Syria.

The sources said talks had not addressed the status of the Golan Heights, which Israel seized in a 1967 war. A Syrian source familiar with Damascus's position said it would be left "for the future."

The two countries have technically been at war since the creation of Israel in 1948, despite periodic armistices. Syria does not recognize the state of Israel.

After months of encroaching into the demilitarized zone, Israel abandoned the 1974 truce on December 8, the day a rebel offensive ousted Syria's then-president Bashar al-Assad. It struck Syrian military assets and sent troops to within 20 kilometres (12 miles) of Damascus.

Israel has shown reluctance during the closed-door talks to relinquish those gains, the sources said.

"The U.S. is pressuring Syria to accelerate a security deal - this is personal for Trump," said an Israeli security source, who said the U.S. leader wanted to present himself as the architect of a major success in Middle Eastern diplomacy.

But, the source said, "Israel is not offering much."

The offices of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer, who has been leading the negotiations, did not respond to Reuters questions.

A State Department official said Washington "continues to support any efforts that will bring lasting stability and peace between Israel, Syria and its neighbors." The official did not answer questions on whether the U.S. wanted to announce a breakthrough during the General Assembly.

TRUST DEFICIT AT TALKS

Israel has voiced hostility to Syria's Islamist-led government, pointing to President Ahmed al-Sharaa's former jihadist links, and has lobbied Washington to keep the country weak and decentralised.

But the U.S. has encouraged talks - keen to expand the countries that signed peace deals with Israel under the Abraham Accords during Trump's first administration.

Exploratory contacts began in Abu Dhabi following Sharaa's April visit to the Emirates, which have ties with Israel. The two sides then met in the Azerbaijani capital Baku in July.

Days later, discussions were plunged into disarray when Syrian troops deployed to the southwestern Sweida region to quell sectarian violence between Bedouin and Druze militias. Israel said the deployment violated its enforcement of a "demilitarized zone" and bombed the defense ministry in Damascus. Sharaa accused it of seeking pretexts to interfere in Syria's south.

A U.S.-brokered ceasefire ended the violence and, a month later, bilateral negotiations resumed in Paris – marking the first time Syria publicly acknowledged holding direct talks with its longtime foe.

However, the atmosphere in the room was tense, with a lack of trust between the two sides, according to two Syrian sources and a Western diplomat.

Negotiators are following a phased process modelled on deals Israel reached with Egypt that paved the way for a landmark normalization of relations in 1980. That involved the return to Egypt of the Sinai peninsula, seized by Israel in the 1967 war.

Six sources briefed on the talks said Israel would be unwilling even in the longterm to return the Golan, which Trump unilaterally recognised as Israeli in his first term.

Instead, Israel floated a proposal to the U.S. special envoy for Syria, Thomas Barrack, that it could withdraw from southern Syria in return for Sharaa relinquishing the Golan, the Israeli official said.

"Our feelers via the Americans suggest this is a non-starter," the official said. Netanyahu's office, Dermer's office and the U.S. State Department did not respond to questions on the swap proposal.

A Syrian official told Reuters that Sharaa understood that "any compromise on the Golan would mean the end of his rule" and had told Barrack the security pact must be anchored in the 1974 lines.

While Sharaa is willing to accelerate talks with Israel to please Washington, he remains wary, according to a Western intelligence officer, the Israeli official and Syrian source.

He has told Barrack that conditions are not yet ripe for a broad peace agreement. "The basic elements of trust are simply not there," said the Syrian official.

A senior U.S. administration official told Reuters that Trump was clear when he met Sharaa in May in Riyadh that "he expected Syria to work towards peace and normalization with Israel and its neighbors."

"The Administration has actively supported this position since then," the official said. "The President wants peace throughout the Middle East."

NARROW PATH FOR SHARAA

Realities on the ground have limited the Syrian leader's options.

On the one hand, Israel's incursions and support for the Druze have hardened Syrian public opinion against any deal, a factor weighing on Sharaa, officials say.

On the other, Israel's land grabs in Syria pose a threat to Damascus, making a de-escalatory pact all the more important for Sharaa.

A Syrian military officer based near the border with Israel, who asked not to be identified, said Syrian army patrols in the south avoid confronting Israeli troops, who regularly raid villages and go door-to-door collecting household data and searching for arms.

In response to Reuters questions, the Israeli military said its operations had discovered "numerous weapons", thwarted smuggling attempts and apprehended "dozens of suspects involved in advancing terrorist activity", without providing further details.

The Israeli military was operating in southern Syria to protect Israel and its citizens, the statement said. Israel has threatened air strikes on any significant Syrian military or intelligence presence near the border without its consent.

Israel uses its new post at Mount Hermon, which it seized after Assad's fall, to surveil the region. Defence Minister Israel Katz said last month Israel would not cede the location.

Israel's military has imposed buffer zones in some neighbouring countries following the Oct. 7, 2023 attack on Israel by Hamas, in which some 1,200 people were killed. Israel's nearly two-year campaign against Hamas has killed more than 64,000 people in Gaza, according to local authorities.

"As in northern Gaza and southern Lebanon, Israel is now enforcing a wider demilitarised zone in southern Syria," Syrian security analyst Wael Alwan said.

DRUZE DEVELOPMENTS BOLSTERED ISRAEL

Israel's position has been strengthened by developments in Sweida, where Syrian forces stand accused of execution-style killings of Druze civilians. Druze leaders are calling for independence and a humanitarian corridor from Golan to Sweida - a challenge to Sharaa's vow to centralise control of Syrian territory.

Two senior Druze figures, who requested anonymity due to the sensitivity of the matter, said that since the Sweida fighting, Israel was helping unify splintered Druze factions and had delivered military supplies including guns and ammunition to them.

The two Druze commanders and a Western intelligence source said that Israel was also paying salaries for many of the roughly 3,000 Druze militia fighters.

Reuters was not able to independently confirm the munitions supplies nor the payments. The offices of Netanyahu and Dermer did not respond to Reuters questions on support for the Druze militia.

Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shibani dismissed the possibility of a humanitarian corridor at the Paris talks, saying it would infringe on Syria's sovereignty, according to a Syrian official familiar with the discussions.

Both sides agreed that stability in Syria's south was key to preventing a resurgence of covert agents linked to Iran, Lebanese armed group Hezbollah or Palestinian armed groups - common enemies of Israel and Syria's new leaders. Israel agreed to allow interior ministry forces to deploy checkpoints in Sweida.

"Both parties are probing areas of common ground," said the Syrian official.

Sharaa is keen not to provoke his southern neighbour, aware of how much damage its military can inflict, one close aide said on condition of anonymity: "Avoiding confrontation is central to his plan to rebuild and govern."

Erdem Ozan, a former Turkish diplomat and expert on Syria, said Sharaa could accelerate talks to secure economic aid and reconstruction support from investors, Gulf benefactors and Washington.

"Sharaa's focus on economic delivery could push him toward pragmatic concessions, but he'll need to balance this with maintaining legitimacy among his supporters," Ozan said.

Concessions could include handing greater autonomy to regional groups, including the Kurds and Druze, Ozan said, as well as demilitarization near Syria's borders with Israeli and Jordan.