INTERNATIONAL
Japan-China diplomatic flare-up 'just starting,' says analyst
China pressures Japan after PM Sanae Takaichi says a Taiwan attack threatening Japan could trigger military action, deepening diplomatic tensions. - Astro AWANI
AN increasingly tense diplomatic rift between Japan and China is only “just starting,” and observers should expect the standoff to only get worse before any resolution is in sight, a regional political expert told Reuters on Thursday (November 20).
AI Brief
The recent standoff was ignited after new Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi made a statement this month that a Chinese attack on Taiwan threatening Japan's survival could trigger a military response—which China has since demanded she retract.
China has shown its displeasure with steps designed to inflict pain on the world's fourth largest economy after Takaichi's response, which officials said was unscripted, to an opposition lawmaker's query in her first parliamentary grilling. These range from a boycott on travel to a halt on imports of its seafood and cancellations of meetings and cultural events. But Takaichi cannot satisfy Beijing's core demand to retract her comment that an attack on Taiwan, the democratically-governed island claimed by Beijing, could bring a military response from Tokyo, the officials said.
Stephen Nagy, professor of politics and international studies at International Christian University, believes the row was triggered by Takaichi’s recent string of diplomatic “successes” which were on full display at the ASEAN and APEC summits.
“What we understand is that this success (by Takaichi) has troubled the Chinese. They felt that she would be a short-lived prime minister, an unsuccessful prime minister. But with this successful foreign policy outing, I think they felt that it was an important time to start putting pressure on Japan,” Nagy told Reuters.
Meanwhile, China has ratcheted up its attacks on Takaichi.
A Chinese diplomat first appeared to threaten her beheading in a post quickly deleted from social media, a prominent nationalist commentator called her an "evil witch", and a cartoon on the X account of China's armed forces depicted her burning Japan's pacifist constitution.
Japan recently dispatched a senior diplomat to Beijing to alleviate the tensions, but with little results. Liu Jinsong, a senior Chinese official who received his Japanese counterpart in Beijing on Tuesday (November 18), described their talks as "solemn".
“They continued to show the Japanese counterpart bowing in a very apologetic way, and the Chinese diplomat being quite dismissive and disrespectful to the Japanese. And I think, again, this is to show the Chinese people that China has stood up and that it will not be bullied again through some false narratives,” said Nagy.
Beijing has already ruled out a potential icebreaker meeting between Takaichi and China's Premier Li Qiang on the sidelines this weekend of a meeting of the G20 grouping in South Africa.
Some analysts liken the rift to one triggered by Tokyo's 2012 decision to nationalise disputed islands that unleashed mass anti-Japan protests across China. Leaders did not meet for 2-1/2 years during that dispute.
“So I don't think we're at the peak point. Actually, I think we're just starting. China is just starting in terms of the pressure that it's going to put on Japan… And again, I think they learned from the Australian experience where the Australians had to… they (China) had also similar embargoes against Australian products in 2020 after Scott Morrison asked for an international investigation of COVID-19,” Nagy added.
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AI Brief
- Japan's PM Takaichi said a Taiwan attack endangering Japan might prompt military response, angering China.
- Beijing retaliated with travel boycotts, seafood bans, and harsh rhetoric, demanding Takaichi retract her remark.
- Analysts say Chinas pressure reflects concern over Takaichi's diplomatic gains and rising Japan-China tensions.
The recent standoff was ignited after new Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi made a statement this month that a Chinese attack on Taiwan threatening Japan's survival could trigger a military response—which China has since demanded she retract.
China has shown its displeasure with steps designed to inflict pain on the world's fourth largest economy after Takaichi's response, which officials said was unscripted, to an opposition lawmaker's query in her first parliamentary grilling. These range from a boycott on travel to a halt on imports of its seafood and cancellations of meetings and cultural events. But Takaichi cannot satisfy Beijing's core demand to retract her comment that an attack on Taiwan, the democratically-governed island claimed by Beijing, could bring a military response from Tokyo, the officials said.
Stephen Nagy, professor of politics and international studies at International Christian University, believes the row was triggered by Takaichi’s recent string of diplomatic “successes” which were on full display at the ASEAN and APEC summits.
“What we understand is that this success (by Takaichi) has troubled the Chinese. They felt that she would be a short-lived prime minister, an unsuccessful prime minister. But with this successful foreign policy outing, I think they felt that it was an important time to start putting pressure on Japan,” Nagy told Reuters.
Meanwhile, China has ratcheted up its attacks on Takaichi.
A Chinese diplomat first appeared to threaten her beheading in a post quickly deleted from social media, a prominent nationalist commentator called her an "evil witch", and a cartoon on the X account of China's armed forces depicted her burning Japan's pacifist constitution.
Japan recently dispatched a senior diplomat to Beijing to alleviate the tensions, but with little results. Liu Jinsong, a senior Chinese official who received his Japanese counterpart in Beijing on Tuesday (November 18), described their talks as "solemn".
“They continued to show the Japanese counterpart bowing in a very apologetic way, and the Chinese diplomat being quite dismissive and disrespectful to the Japanese. And I think, again, this is to show the Chinese people that China has stood up and that it will not be bullied again through some false narratives,” said Nagy.
Beijing has already ruled out a potential icebreaker meeting between Takaichi and China's Premier Li Qiang on the sidelines this weekend of a meeting of the G20 grouping in South Africa.
Some analysts liken the rift to one triggered by Tokyo's 2012 decision to nationalise disputed islands that unleashed mass anti-Japan protests across China. Leaders did not meet for 2-1/2 years during that dispute.
“So I don't think we're at the peak point. Actually, I think we're just starting. China is just starting in terms of the pressure that it's going to put on Japan… And again, I think they learned from the Australian experience where the Australians had to… they (China) had also similar embargoes against Australian products in 2020 after Scott Morrison asked for an international investigation of COVID-19,” Nagy added.
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