Macron heads to China as Europe walks tightrope between rivalry and reliance

Macron in the past has sought to project a robust European front in dealing with China, while being careful not to antagonise Beijing, whose growing assertiveness is testing trade, security and diplomatic ties, analysts say.

"He must make clear to China's leadership that Europe will respond to growing economic and security threats from Beijing, while preventing an escalation of tensions that leads to a full-blown trade war and diplomatic breakdown," Noah Barkin, a China analyst with Rhodium Group, told Reuters.

"This is not an easy message to deliver," he said.

CHINESE EXPORTS HAMMERING EUROPEAN INDUSTRY

Macron, who will start his trip with a visit to Beijing's Forbidden City on Wednesday, will meet President Xi Jinping on Thursday in the capital and again on Friday during a trip to Chengdu, in southwestern Sichuan province.

His visit comes after a tense trip by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in July, when she said ties between the EU and China were at an "inflection point."

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz will visit early next year.

Trade tensions between China and Europe have risen as cheap Chinese exports, in the steel sector in particular after being shut out of the U.S. market, are hammering swathes of European industry.

There is also anxiety in Europe at China's growing technological superiority in the electric vehicle (EV) sector and its dominance in rare earths processing, which could threaten supplies for critical European industries.

With Washington's tariffs squeezing global trade, Beijing is seizing the opportunity to present itself as a partner for business – hoping to mollify European concerns over China's backing for Russia and its state-subsidised industrial model.

Ahead of the trip, Macron's advisers said he would push for a rebalancing of trade dynamics so that China boosts domestic consumption and hoped the "gains from innovation could be shared", so that Europe gets access to Chinese technology.

To combat growing concern over China trade, the European Union is expected to unveil a new economic security doctrine that could see the bloc deploy its toolbox of trade instruments in a more aggressive way towards China.

France, whose carmakers have negligible sales in China but are under pressure to succeed in their transition to EVs at home, backed a European Commission push to raise tariffs on Chinese electric car imports.

It also got embroiled in a dispute with Beijing for more than a year over a Chinese investigation into brandy imports, a move widely seen as Chinese retaliation for French support of the EV tariffs, before being offered a respite.

Despite recently opening a new assembly line in China, Airbus is unlikely to clinch a long-anticipated order of up to 500 jets during Macron's visit, industry sources said. Such deals give Beijing leverage over Washington, which is pressing for fresh Boeing purchase commitments.

MACRON CANNOT AFFORD TO GO ROGUE

Macron will also be keen not to repeat the missteps of his last trip in 2023, when his remarks on Taiwan in an interview on his flight back home caused a backlash in the United States.

"Macron cannot allow himself to go rogue as in 2023," Barkin said, adding the comments, in which he seemed to refuse to pick sides between China and the U.S., had "painted a misleading picture about where French policy towards China really was."

French advisers said Macron would push for maintaining the status quo on Taiwan and urge China not to escalate, following recent Japanese comments on the island that triggered a diplomatic spat with Beijing.

"I expect him to be more disciplined this time," Barkin said. "There is much more at stake for France and for Europe."