Making sense of Trump’s Middle East tour

RIYADH: The stage was set. The gilded halls of Riyadh’s Raja Khalid International Airport shimmered under the desert sun, echoing the grandeur with which the kingdom receives only its most consequential guests.

The proverbial red carpet — because it was actually purple — had been laid on the scorching tarmac. One fit for a president.

Donald Trump had arrived in Saudi Arabia.

The kingdom with the world’s largest oil reserves once again became Trump’s first foreign destination, just as it was during his first term in 2017. This time, it was the first stop in a four-day tour of the Middle East, which involves neighboring Qatar and the United Arab Emirates (UAE).

Long before the wheels of Air Force One touched Saudi tarmac though, much has been pre-analyzed about what the visit will focus on.

A favorite among analysts was the geopolitical tensions and power play steadily gripping the region.

Just a month prior, Iran-backed Yemen had issued a direct threat to Saudi Arabia, warning it not to participate in any military actions against the former. Referencing past attacks on Saudi Aramco, they threatened attacks that would target the Saudis where it hurts the most; its oil infrastructure.

But such geopolitical inconveniences — to borrow a video game term — became a side-quest, as the main goal of Trump’s visit soon became clear.

Money Talks

From Riyadh to Doha to Abu Dhabi, the Gulf’s immense wealth was open for business, and Trump wants the United States to be its partner-in-chief.

Merely hours after greeting the President on the tarmac, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman raised the curtain on what would be a slew on investment announcements in the next four days.

"Today we hope for investment opportunities worth $600 billion, including deals worth $300 billion that were signed during this forum. We will work in the coming months on the second phase to complete deals and raise it to $1 trillion,” he says against the backdrop of numerous American CEOs and tech leaders in attendance.

Despite having been in the works for months, it sounded like music to the President’s ears, who drove the point home to a more domestic audience.

“Aren’t we doing a good job for America?” he remarked while walking the halls of the King’s grand palace.

Having campaigned so much on the economy, it now seems clear that this visit is, first and foremost, about announcing as many huge investment deals as possible.

Soon enough, Qatar followed suit with a staggering $243.5 billion investment pledge, including a record-breaking $96 billion aircraft deal between Boeing and its national carrier.

UAE then capped it with $200 billion in commercial deals, headlined by a plan to build the world’s largest AI data center in Abu Dhabi in partnership with American firms.

It was mission accomplished for Trump.

But once the economic fanfare was over, it was impossible to ignore the elephants in the room.

What About Gaza?

In Riyadh, Trump made brief but pointed remarks about the ongoing war in Gaza, calling for a durable ceasefire and hinting at a U.S.-backed framework to revive peace talks.

“The people of Gaza deserve a much better future,” he said in his speech at the Saudi-U.S. Investment Forum.

“The way those people are treated in Gaza... there is not a place in the world where people are treated so badly,” said Trump.

To their credit, leaders of the six-member Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) then publicly broached the issue in their Summit with the President.

“We seek with you, Mr. President, and in cooperation with our brothers in the Gulf Cooperation Council countries, to de-escalate tensions in the region, end the war in Gaza and find a permanent and comprehensive solution to the Palestinian cause, in accordance with the Arab Peace Initiative and relevant Arab resolutions,” says the Saudi Crown Prince.

Trump also continued a characteristically vague U.S. pledge to see to the end of the conflict.

“We continue to work to get that war ended as quickly as possible. It’s a horrible thing that’s taking place,” he said.

Yet his language was notably cautious — no direct criticism of Israel, no mention of civilian casualties, and no commitment to a two-state solution.

Israel Down, But Not Out?

Analysts were quick to note the snub of Israel. Conspicuously, the country was not included in the four-day tour, despite being a key ally in the region.

Having already blindsided Israel multiple times by announcing talks with Iran, a deal with Yemen’s Houthi rebels, and direct negotiations with Hamas, Trump left Israeli officials worried that another unexpected move may be on the way.

But any concerns were soon eased by his reiteration of a long-standing American desire.

“It’s my fervent hope, wish and even my dream that Saudi Arabia will soon be joining the Abraham Accords,” he said.

The pact, brokered by Trump during his first term, requires formally recognizing the state of Israel. It has been signed by Bahrain, the UAE, Sudan and Morocco.

Saudi Arabia had indeed been involved in negotiations to normalize diplomatic relations with Israel, before the 2023 Gaza conflict made the position untenable. The kingdom now demands Palestinian statehood for any hopes of negotiations to resume.

But Trump’s mixed messages — his snubbing of Israel but his advocacy of the Abraham Accords — still leave questions about America’s grand plan for the region.

And then came the announcement.

Make Syria Great Again

In a surprise twist, Trump announced his decision to lift U.S. sanctions on Syria.

The move marks a dramatic shift in American foreign policy and a potential redrawing of dynamics in the region. Trump stated that the decision was made to support Syria’s new leadership under interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa, who had travelled to Riyadh to meet him in person.

“[I] have felt very strongly that this would give them a chance. It's not gonna be easy anyway, so this gives them a good strong chance. And it was my honour to do so,” he said.

The move drew mixed reactions in Washington, with critics warning it could legitimize a regime still under international scrutiny. But Trump’s team frames it differently: as a bold move to bring Syria back into the Arab fold and “give it a chance at greatness”.

The President’s stance was considered part of a broader vision for regional stability and economic revival — one that aligns with his push to expand the Abraham Accords and make the Middle East a steady source of investment income.

While Trump stopped short of formally recognizing Syria’s new government, his engagement with al-Sharaa signals a potential thaw in relations after more than a decade of diplomatic freeze.

The decision followed a recent discussion with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and MBS himself, with the latter erupting into a standing ovation as the announcement was made.

“The things I do for the Crown Prince,” Trump said.

Trump’s Tehran Turnaround?

Another surprise came when Trump extended an olive branch to Iran, signaling a potential shift in U.S. policy toward the long-estranged nation. He emphasized his openness to negotiating a new deal over Iran’s nuclear program.

“If I can make a deal with Iran, I’ll be very happy,” he said.

His outreach though, was tempered with a stern warning.

“If Iran continues to destabilize the region, we will respond with massive, maximum pressure,” said Trump.

This dual message — conciliatory yet firm — reflects Trump’s broader strategy of transactional diplomacy. His remarks come amid quiet backchannel talks between American and Iranian officials, reportedly focused on reviving an Obama-era nuclear deal. Indirect negotiations between the two countries, reportedly mediated by Oman, have entered a fourth round, with a fifth expected soon.

Iran’s response was cautiously optimistic, but laced with skepticism. A senior adviser to Iran’s Supreme Leader acknowledged that “a deal is still possible,” suggesting that if the U.S. follows through on its promises, Tehran is open to improving relations.

However, Iranian officials in the executive branch also made it clear that they will not be pressured into any concessions.

“He thinks he can come here, chant slogans, and scare us. For us, martyrdom is far sweeter than dying in bed. You came to frighten us? We will not bow to any bully,” says Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian.

Trump 2.0 and The New Middle East Blueprint

What emerges from this tour is a clearer picture of Trump’s foreign policy in his second term: less about military intervention, more about economic leverage and deal-making.

In his own words, the U.S. is no longer interested in giving its Gulf allies “lectures on how to live.”

"In the end, the so-called nation builders wrecked far more nations than they built.

"And the interventionalists were intervening in complex societies that they did not even understand” he said, calling instead for countries to chart their “own destinies in [their] own way.”

The U.S. is now positioning itself not just as a security guarantor, but as the preferred partner for the region’s ambitious economic transformation — from AI megaprojects to massive infrastructure development.

Yet questions remain. Can this economic-first approach deliver lasting peace? Will the U.S. maintain credibility as a neutral broker in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict? And how will Iran respond to a region increasingly aligned with Washington, despite having been offered an “olive branch”?

For now, Trump has left the region with headlines, handshakes, and historic sums of money pledged.

But the real test of his Middle East blueprint will come in the years ahead — when the dust settles, and the deals must be delivered.