INTERNATIONAL
Missiles, strikes, ceasefire: What we know so far on the Israel - Iran conflict
Smoke rises following an Israeli attack in Tehran, Iran, June 18, 2025. - Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency)/via REUTERS
TENSIONS between Iran and Israel erupted into a 12-day military confrontation that saw drone swarms, ballistic missiles, and US airstrikes. But just as the conflict threatened to escalate further, US President Donald Trump announced a surprise ceasefire. Is it real? And will it last?
AI Brief
- Israel began the conflict with attacks on Irans nuclear sites; Iran hit back with missiles. The US later joined, escalating the fight.
- Trump led military strikes and then negotiated a conditional ceasefire, showing bold diplomacy but the situation remains highly unstable.
- Iran wants Israel to fully stop attacks before committing to peace.
WHAT'S HAPPENING?
Israel's first strike
On June 13, Israel launched Operation Rising Lion, a direct attack on Iranian nuclear and military sites, reportedly killing high-level officials. The aim: to cripple Iran’s missile and nuclear capabilities.
Iran's retaliation
Iran responded by firing over 150 ballistic missiles and deploying 100 drones toward Israel, injuring at least 22 people. The US helped intercept many of the strikes.
America joins the fight
After Iran targeted a US base in Qatar (no casualties), Trump approved strikes on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure—bombing facilities in Fordow, Isfahan, and Natanz. This marked the US’s most direct military involvement in the conflict to date.
A ceasefire… brokered by Trump
On June 23, Trump announced a "complete and total" ceasefire: Israel would hold fire if Iran stops attacks. Iran agreed—conditionally—if Israeli strikes end by a specific deadline.
People watch from a bridge as flames from an Israeli attack rise from Sharan Oil depot, following Israeli strikes on Iran, in Tehran, Iran, June 15, 2025. - Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via REUTERS
WHY IT MATTERS
Middle East at the brink
This is the most direct confrontation between Iran and Israel in years, pulling the US back into a potential regional war. The threat of escalation remains high if diplomacy breaks down.
Trump’s high-stakes gamble
Trump’s decision to step in—first with military force, then diplomacy—shows he’s reasserting himself on the world stage. Some call it reckless; others see him as a dealmaker once again.
WHAT’S NEXT
Ceasefire holding… barely
Despite the truce, missile activity was still reported in southern Israel. Both sides are watching closely for violations. The situation remains tense.
Behind-the-scenes diplomacy
US officials, working through Qatar, continue backchannel talks with Iran. Tehran insists that Israel must fully stop all aggression before it makes any long-term commitments.
Long-term outlook
Trump claims this ceasefire could last “forever.” But experts warn the situation is fragile. A single airstrike or political misstep could reignite the conflict.
Emergency personnel remove the remains of victims, at an impacted residential site, following a missile attack from Iran on Israel, amid the Israel-Iran conflict, in Be'er Sheva, Israel June 24, 2025. - REUTERS/Amir Cohen
TIMELINE
June 13, 2025 - Day 1
- Israel initiates the first direct strikes on Iran, targeting multiple nuclear and military facilities across Natanz, Fordow, Isfahan—and allegedly even killing top advisors to Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei
- Iran fires back, launching over 400 ballistic missiles and drones at Israel. They hit military zones and even a hospital in Beersheba.
- President Trump is initially opposed, but privately urges Netanyahu to “keep going” - pulling US intel into Israeli operations.
June 15–18, 2025 - Escalation & Internal Debate
- Iran warns that any further US involvement would be “very, very dangerous,” with Ayatollah Khamenei stating it could cause “irreparable damage” .
- Behind the scenes, Trump weighs airstrike plans, setting a two‑week ultimatum for Iran to de‑escalate, while his advisers are split between military intervention and “America First” diplomacy.
June 21, 2025 - US–Israel Airstrikes
- Trump officially orders US B‑2 bombers to bomb Fordow, Natanz & Isfahan, calling it a “spectacular military success”
- Iran responds with missile salvos against US bases in Qatar and Iraq, and around 20 ballistic missiles at Israel - some damaging structures, some intercepted.
- Trump teases “Make Iran Great Again,” hinting at potential regime change if Tehran doesn’t comply.
A missile launched from Iran towards Israel is seen from Tubas, amid the Iran-Israel conflict, in the Israeli-occupied West Bank, June 24, 2025. - REUTERS/Raneen Sawafta
June 22–23, 2025 - Turning Point: Bombardment → Negotiations
- June 22: US hits Iran’s nuclear sites via “Midnight Hammer,” aiming to cripple enrichment infrastructure
- Iran threatens to block the Strait of Hormuz in retaliation and halts attacks only if Israel ceases
- Trump, leveraging the U.S. strikes, sets a deadline: ceasefire to begin “midnight Tuesday” ahead of NATO summit.
June 24, 2025 - Ceasefire Declared - But Is It Real?
- Trump declares a “complete and total” ceasefire allegedly in effect - the end of the “12‑Day War” - crediting US and Qatari diplomacy.
- Yet Iran’s FM Araghchi deny any formal deal: missile strikes on Israel continue, and Iran maintains it will strike back if Israel resumes.
Current Snapshot
- Trump/US proclaims ceasefire, calls it a historic success, credits airstrikes & US diplomacy
- No official confirmation; air defense sirens and diplomatic caution remain active .
- Iran Offers conditional pause if Israel halts first; warns of blocking Hormuz and reserving retaliation .
US President Donald Trump Trump teases “Make Iran Great Again,” hinting at potential regime change if Tehran doesn’t comply. - REUTERS/Filepic
What to Watch Next
- Will Iran actually pause if Israel halts? And vice versa.
- Can the ceasefire survive sectarian or regional proxy flare-ups?
- When (or if) formalised talks begin—via Qatar, Russia, or Oman.
- How Trump spins this at the upcoming NATO summit: diplomacy or dominance?
ALSO READ - Endless wars, two Americas, one failing machine: The real stakes of US involvement in Iran–Israel
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