NATO Turns 75: planning for the future in an uncertain world

ON its 75th anniversary, NATO is poised to address emerging global security issues, balancing expansion with the need for unity against rising threats.

The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) was founded on April 4, 1949, with the signing of the Washington Treaty by 12 countries: Belgium, Canada, Denmark, France, Iceland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, the United Kingdom and the United States.

It has since grown to 32 members, recently adding Finland and Sweden. But this expansion has led to tensions with Russia, particularly over the inclusion of former Soviet satellites after the USSR's fall.

This issue will likely be a significant focus for NATO’s next Secretary-General, former Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte. Rutte will succeed Jens Stoltenberg on October 2, amid the Ukraine conflict and the upcoming US presidential election. His appointment followed a compromise with Hungarian President Viktor Orbán, securing support by agreeing not to use Hungary’s resources for Ukraine.

Former Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg has stirred controversy by suggesting in a June 17 interview more nuclear weapons in response to threats from Russia and China. He emphasised the need for consultations on nuclear strategy and warned about the China-Russia partnership, urging China to stop supporting Russia's war efforts in Ukraine.

The Sino-Russian alliance, reminiscent of Cold War dynamics, presents a strategic challenge for NATO. The 1950 Sino-Soviet Treaty and the Korean War heightened Western fears of communism, which led to NATO's militarization. Post-Cold War NATO expansion renewed Sino-Russian cooperation, solidified by treaties in 2001 and 2022.

Western concerns are underscored by the US National Security Strategy, labelling China and Russia as "revisionist powers". Both the Trump and Biden administrations highlighted the ideological and geopolitical threats posed by these nations, calling for strengthened alliances to counter their influence.

NATO's new Strategic Concept emphasises adapting to systemic rivalry, with China and Russia seen as significant threats to democracy. The West views their relationship through an ideological lens, while Beijing and Moscow seek to create an alternative bloc to Western democracies.

Though they have grown closer over the past two decades, the notion of an unbreakable Sino-Russian partnership is questioned by their varied support levels in conflicts like Ukraine. Western leaders must navigate this complex relationship, recognizing the unique historical and strategic contexts shaping current global dynamics.

Rutte's consensus-building reputation will be tested by internal NATO divisions and declining public support for Ukraine. His pro-Ukraine stance is expected to continue, despite concerns about waning Western involvement and potential US disengagement.

Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine has revitalised NATO, marking a new era for the alliance. The summits in Madrid and Vilnius in 2022 and 2023 have brought NATO back to its core mission of collective security and deterrence.

The new Secretary-General will also need to balance the interests of Central and Eastern European members against those of southern allies, address NATO’s expanded scope into new domains, and confront the challenge posed by China's growing influence.

Giuseppe Francaviglia, 360info European Commissioning Editor