New phase in Japan prime minister's policies comes with cabinet reshuffle

Abe emphasized the "firing of new three arrows" as the centerpiece of his policy.

The first arrow: Realizing the "largest economy since the end of World War II."

The second arrow: Raising the average number of children a woman has from its current rate of about 1.4 to about 1.8 to curb the decline in the Japanese population.

The third arrow: Establishing a social security system that can lead to public peace of mind, such as by eliminating the necessity for people to leave their jobs to provide nursing care for their parents by the early 2020s.

With the enactment of the security legislation, Abe has repeatedly expressed his view that he would return to giving top priority to the economy. Abenomics - which began with the second Abe Cabinet formed in December 2012 - has delivered a favorable cycle of high stock prices and correction of the overvalued yen through bold monetary easing, transforming an economy that had sunk under the weight of long-term deflation. It was a "quick fix" policy, so to speak.

However, a fundamental reform of Japanese society is considered essential to deliver growth over the long term. Abe has mentioned elderly people who can still work and the large number of women who still leave work to marry and for other reasons because he aims to reduce "negative factors for economic growth," even if just slightly.

The reason Abe's focus has settled on the nursing care problem is that the economic impact caused by the decline of the workforce can no longer be ignored - the number of people forced to leave their jobs annually to provide nursing care has exceeded 100,000.

In 2020, about 8 million baby boomers, born between 1947 and 1949, will be over 70 years old, making the nursing care problem all the more severe. If the "junior baby boomers" born between 1971 and 1974, who are in their 40s and the primes of their careers, were to leave their jobs in quick succession to provide nursing care, "the economy and society would fall apart," the prime minister has said.

Many leave work to provide nursing care because there is a chronic shortage of nursing care facilities, such as special nursing homes for the elderly (See below) operated by social welfare corporations and local governments, which forces family members to provide care at home.

There are an estimated 150,000 people currently waiting for openings at these facilities. This number is expected to exceed 200,000 in 2025.

Even more serious is the shortage of caregiver personnel. According to an estimate by the Health, Labor and Welfare Ministry, 2.53 million workers handling nursing care will be needed in fiscal 2025, though a shortage of 380,000 workers is expected if things remain as they are.