In post-Maduro Venezuela, US eyes security chief as potential target, sources say

Diosdado Cabello, who controls security forces accused of widespread human rights abuses, is one of a handful of Maduro loyalists that President Donald Trump has decided to rely on as temporary rulers to maintain stability during a transition period, said one source briefed on the administration’s thinking.

U.S. officials are especially concerned that Cabello, given his record of repression and history of rivalry with Rodriguez, could play the spoiler and are seeking to force his cooperation even as they look for ways to eventually push him out of power and into exile, said the source, who spoke on condition of anonymity.

WARNING TO CABELLO

In the meantime, they have communicated to Cabello via intermediaries that if he is defiant, he could face a similar fate to Maduro, the authoritarian leader captured in a U.S. raid on Saturday and whisked away to New York to face prosecution on “narco-terrorism” charges, or could see his life in danger, the source said.

But taking out Cabello could be risky, possibly motivating pro-government motorcycle groups, known as colectivos, to take to the streets, unleashing the chaos Washington wants to avoid. Their reaction may depend on whether they feel protected by other officials, however.

Also on the list of potential targets is Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino, who, like Cabello, is under a U.S. drug trafficking indictment and has a multimillion-dollar bounty on his head, according to two sources.

“This remains a law enforcement operation, and we are not done yet,” said a U.S. Justice Department official, speaking on condition of anonymity.

U.S. officials see Padrino’s collaboration as crucial for avoiding a power vacuum due to his command of the armed forces. They believe he is less dogmatic than Cabello and more likely to toe the U.S. line while seeking his own safe exit, the source briefed on administration thinking said.

A senior Trump administration official declined to answer Reuters' specific questions but said in a statement: “The President is speaking about exerting maximum leverage with the remaining elements in Venezuela and ensuring they cooperate with the United States by halting illegal migration, stopping drug flows, revitalizing oil infrastructure, and doing what is right for the Venezuelan people.”

Venezuela's communications ministry, which handles all press requests for the government, did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

ADMINISTRATION DOUBTS OPPOSITION COULD KEEP PEACE: SOURCE

The administration has decided Venezuela's opposition, led by Nobel Peace Prize winner Maria Corina Machado, would be unable to keep the peace at a time when Trump wants enough calm on the ground to jump-start access for U.S. oil companies to Venezuela’s vast oil reserves and to avoid having to put U.S. forces on the ground, the source said.

Trump instead has embraced a classified CIA assessment that concluded Maduro’s top aides would be best situated to run the country on an interim basis, according to sources briefed on the matter.

U.S. officials also decided to work with Maduro’s allies for now out of concern that the country could descend into chaos if they tried to force a democratic handover, and that an excluded member of the inner circle might foment a coup, according to one of the sources.

But the administration wants to eventually see a move toward new elections, U.S. officials have said, though the timeframe remains uncertain.

Trump has offered no clear explanation of how Washington would oversee Venezuela after the biggest U.S. intervention in Latin America since the 1989 invasion of Panama. Critics have condemned it as neocolonialism and a violation of international law.

RODRIGUEZ SEEN AS LINCHPIN

For now, Washington sees Rodriguez as its best bet to temporarily hold power while it continues developing plans for governing post-Maduro Venezuela, a strategy one source described as “very much still a work in progress.”

Among the U.S. demands for Venezuela's leaders are a demonstration of willingness to open up Venezuela’s oil industry on terms favorable to U.S. companies, a crackdown on the narcotics trade, the expulsion of Cuban security personnel and an end to Venezuelan cooperation with Iran, the source briefed on administration thinking said.

The U.S. wants to see progress toward meeting U.S. objectives in a matter of weeks, the source said.

Beyond threats of further military action, the U.S. could use Rodriguez's finances as leverage. The U.S. has identified those assets, sheltered in Qatar, and could seize them, the source said.

A Qatari official told Reuters that claims Rodriguez has assets in Qatar are inaccurate. "She does not hold any financial accounts or assets in Qatar," the official said.

CO-OPTING VENEZUELAN OFFICIALS

U.S. authorities and their intermediaries are also seeking to co-opt other senior Venezuelan officials and those at levels below them to open the way for a government that will acquiesce to Washington’s interests, the source said.

Trump’s vow to “run” Venezuela appears for now to be more an aspiration to exert outside control - or at least heavy influence - over the OPEC nation without deploying U.S. ground forces, a move that would be unpopular at home.

Trump’s advisers see Rodriguez as the linchpin: a technocrat who they believe is amenable to working with the U.S. on a transition and oil-related issues, according to people briefed on the U.S. strategy.

Though she and Maduro’s other top loyalists have projected a mostly united front, it is unclear whether that will last.

Rodriguez and Cabello have both operated at the heart of the government, legislature and ruling socialist party for years, but have never been considered close allies.

A former military officer, Cabello, seen as the main enforcer of repression within Maduro’s government, exerts influence over the country's military and civilian counterintelligence agencies, which conduct widespread domestic espionage.

“Maduro brought him in to crack heads together in the aftermath of the stolen election,” said Geoff Ramsey, non-resident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council think-tank.

The United Nations found both SEBIN, the civilian agency, and DGCIM, the military intelligence service, had committed crimes against humanity as part of a state plan to crush dissent.