WHEN the global economic tide begins to turn against us, prudence is not found in standing still. It is found in the courage and foresight to prepare before the wave breaks upon our shores.

I closely monitor the geopolitical and economic fault lines developing abroad. What we are witnessing today is way beyond a routine fluctuation of global oil prices. It is the early tremor of an international system under severe strain- one where the cost of energy threatens not merely to rise, but to rupture. And when energy supply lines rupture, the cascade is absolute: global trade, domestic food security, transport, production, and the daily livelihoods of the rakyat will all follow.

Faced with this reality, we must firmly reject two equally dangerous instincts: the complacency that assumes the storm will pass, and the paralysis born of our past administrative mistakes.

Stimulus as Readiness, Not a Reflex

On the question of whether fiscal stimulus should remain on the table, the answer is an unequivocal yes—not as a reflexive habit, but as a state of readiness.

Today, targeted mechanisms such as BUDI95 and the rationalised diesel subsidies are already performing essential work. They are quietly but meaningfully absorbing the first shocks of international volatility and cushioning the rakyat. This represents disciplined, targeted, and necessary policymaking. However, we must be brutally honest about the scale of the risk on the horizon. There is currently no contingency- neither within government coffers nor in the private sector- capable of withstanding a doubling, tripling, or quadrupling of global energy costs.

A spike of that magnitude is not a stress test; it is a systemic shock. In such an extremity, stimulus is no longer an optional policy lever—it becomes the macroeconomic stabiliser of last resort.

Learning from Past Leakages: Precision Over Paralysis

We must learn from the past, but we must not retreat from our duties. The lesson from previous global crises is not that state intervention is fundamentally flawed, but that poorly designed intervention carries a heavy cost.

To abandon the option of stimulus entirely would be to unilaterally disarm ourselves of the very tools required to prevent economic collapse. The solution is not to avoid intervention, but to demand sharper execution:

●    Targeted delivery, rather than blanket disbursements.
●    Digital traceability, rather than opaque distribution channels.
●    Outcome-based support, rather than open-ended spending.

We need intervention that is smarter, cleaner, and strictly accountable. When the national economy is facing a fire, the solution is not to stand around debating the imperfections of past firehoses—it is to ensure that the next one works flawlessly and reaches the flames faster.

Debt, Timing, and the Cost of Inaction

While national debt is a serious matter, an economic collapse costs far more. The guiding economic principle here is clear: counter-cyclical budgeting. We must conserve our resources during times of stability precisely so we can act decisively during a crisis.

The debate is not about whether to spend, but recognising the exact moment when the cost of inaction eclipses the cost of intervention. That threshold is breached when:

●    Energy prices surpass the limits of affordability for households and SMEs.
●    International and domestic supply chains begin to contract or fail.
●    Employment risks begin to cascade across multiple sectors.

At that juncture, fiscal restraint ceases to be prudence and becomes recklessness. However, our intervention cannot be improvised in the heat of the moment. It must be pre-authorised, highly structured, and strictly bounded.

The Case for Parliamentary Anchoring

This is why we must act now, before the global storm peaks. A comprehensive fiscal stimulus framework must be brought before Parliament immediately. It should not be tabled as a reactionary, last-minute package, but as a pre-approved contingency mechanism that:

●    Authorises graduated subsidy expansions triggered automatically if pump prices surge past specific thresholds (e.g., 2x, 3x, or 4x normal rates).

●    Provides temporary, dual-track support for both households and businesses, recognising the basic economic reality that jobs depend entirely on the survival of our firms.

●    Embeds strict oversight and reporting mechanisms to preemptively eliminate leakages.

●    Defines rigorous sunset clauses and exit strategies to ensure long-term fiscal discipline is preserved once the crisis abates.

Helping the rakyat without assisting the businesses that employ them is a contradiction. Conversely, aiding businesses without protecting the rakyat is a failure of our moral and governmental purpose. We must secure both deliberately, transparently, and in tandem.

A Call to Act

This is not a distant, theoretical crisis; it is an unfolding reality. Global markets will continue to fluctuate, and diplomacy may temporarily delay escalation, but the underlying geopolitical forces remain highly volatile. Our margin for error is rapidly narrowing.

We cannot wait for prices to spiral out of control before we decide how to govern. We must convene. We must debate. We must secure a clear parliamentary mandate. In times of unprecedented global strain, democratic legitimacy is not a luxury- it is the bedrock of decisive, effective action.

If we prepare now, a stimulus framework acts as a shield. If we delay, it devolves into a desperate, costly remedy. In a modern, globalised world where energy serves as the bloodstream of the economy, we cannot afford to wait for the heart to fail before we take action.

Howard Lee is the MP of Ipoh Timor, Member of Parliamentary Special Select Committee for Foreign Affairs and International Trade.

** The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the position of Astro AWANI.