'Sham' elections: Why Myanmar's crisis won't end at the ballot box

Myanmar’s junta is pressing ahead with the first phase of national elections on December 28, a vote that critics have widely described as a “sham” amid a surge in violence in the lead-up.

According to Debbie Stothard, Founder of the Alternative ASEAN Network on Burma, this comes at a time when the junta is losing ground to resistance groups.

“It's not an accident that it's (being held on) December 28 when most of the world is enjoying year-end holidays,” she told Astro AWANI.

The military has tightened its grip through sweeping legal changes.

Amendments to electoral laws have barred opposition parties from re-registering, while a law passed in July criminalises criticism of the polls, with penalties ranging from seven years in jail to life imprisonment, or even the death penalty.

“In September, 40 people were charged under this law and several have already been sentenced to seven years’ jail."

She added that the military is encouraging certain parties to carry weapons during the elections.

“Since some of these so-called legal parties are actually former militias, it's not likely that they will use these weapons just for defensive purposes.”

A mandatory conscription law revived in 2024 has also seen thousands of youths drafted into the military to cope with the junta’s mounting battlefield losses. Those who refuse face prosecution or reprisals against their families.

“There have already been cases of young boys actually turning up for training and then killing themselves because they don't want to be put in a position of killing civilians, and they didn't have the option of running away because they didn't want their families to suffer,” noted Stothard.

Meanwhile, the military continues to deploy air power against civilian areas, most recently dropping two bombs from a motorised paraglider onto a crowd in Sagaing region, killing at least 24 civilians.

Observers estimate USD5 billion was spent on weapons and ammunition last year alone. Armed clashes and civilian attacks now average about 1,000 incidents a month, or roughly 30 a day.

UN officials warn that the crisis has only deepened since the February 2021 coup, with more than 3.5 million people now displaced internally, making Myanmar the world’s second most severe conflict after Palestine.

A deadly earthquake in March that killed over 3,500 people has further compounded the crisis as nearly a third of the country’s 54 million population face acute food security.

“Today, life in Myanmar, especially in Rakhine State, may be the worst it has ever been for the Rohingya and other minorities,” said Volker Türk, UN High Commissioner for Human Rights.

He urged the international community to make this a turning point and commit to lasting solutions.

At the high-level meeting on September 30, the United States and United Kingdom pledged USD 96 million for Rohingya refugees in Bangladesh. Japan promised continued support for training, food and education. But humanitarian funding remains critically low, with the 2025 response plan only 12 percent funded.

Bangladesh’s interim leader Muhammad Yunus warned in his General Assembly speech that without more aid, monthly rations for Rohingya refugees in Cox’s Bazar could be halved to just USD6 per person.

Despite repeated calls for peace, ASEAN, and Malaysia as its current chair, have struggled to respond effectively.

At the UN in New York, Foreign Minister Datuk Seri Mohamad Hasan pledged RM420,000 to the OIC Humanitarian Trust Fund for Rohingya. This week, he travelled to Naypyidaw for talks with junta leader Min Aung Hlaing, stressing that ASEAN does not view the upcoming elections as a priority, but instead the need for peace and national reconciliation.

Following the meeting, Malaysia would send observation teams for the polls, marking the first such commitment from an ASEAN country since the coup.

A statement from Wisma Putra on October 9 had said implementation of the Five-Point Consensus and inclusive dialogue among all stakeholders were also part of the meeting agenda.

But Stothard argued that ASEAN has fallen short. The bloc remains divided, with rotating envoys and inconsistent positions that have hindered any real progress.

“ASEAN has sabotaged itself by hiding behind non-interference, by sitting on their hands and allowing things to get out of hand.

“What's happening in Myanmar is affecting the region in very profound ways, and it's extremely irresponsible for ASEAN leaders to just resort to statements to try and solve the issue,” she said.

Adrian Pereira, Executive Director of North-South Initiative, said Malaysia faced its own credibility gap.

“There is a degree of hypocrisy and double standards in what Malaysia says and does,” he said, noting that the Foreign Ministry represented the country on an international stage, but enforcement and policy decisions on the ground fell under the Home Affairs Ministry and National Security Council.

This disconnect, he said, leaves refugees in Malaysia vulnerable as they still lack the right to work, education and healthcare. Deportations of Myanmar nationals continue, even as officials say reforms are underway.

Federal Territories Minister Datuk Seri Zaliha Mustafa announced earlier this year that the government was reviewing the National Security Council Directive No. 23 (MKN23) on refugee management and considering limited work rights, though details of the document remain confidential.

As of May 2025, about 200,260 refugees and asylum seekers are registered with the UN Refugee Agency in Malaysia.

“We are not clear on how the principles of what we are talking about (abroad) are translated into protections back at home,” said Pereira, calling for clear action on labour rights, livelihoods and resettlement.

“Why the dialogue has not moved is something that is just a mystery to many of us.”