So, China should consume more and the US less?

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Wayne Cole

AI Brief

China's sluggish domestic spending highlights its struggle to shift from an export-driven economy, affecting regional markets.
Trump's high tariffs aim to fund tax cuts and pressure trade partners, while expecting retailers like Walmart to absorb the costs.
US debt worries and erratic policies have rattled global markets, while political wins in Europe have calmed eurozone investors.

It's been a down day so far in Asia as a miss on China retail sales underlined how far the country would have to travel to shift away from an export-driven economy to one driven by domestic demand. Clearly consumers there aren't feeling the urge to buy, and it's not obvious that Beijing wants that to change.

So, President Donald Trump is telling Americans they have to live with fewer dolls and pencils, while pushing trade policies that indirectly pressure Chinese consumers to buy more.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent was out Sunday chiding would-be trade partners to offer "good faith" deals or face getting a tariff rate sent by letter. He also implied the U.S. only has time to deal with the top 18 trade partners, and the rest could swing in the breeze.

That still leaves the effective tariff for U.S. imports around 13%, the highest since the 1930s and equivalent to a tax rise worth 1.2% of GDP, which Trump is asking Walmart to eat in margins rather than pass on to voting customers.

Trump needs the revenue from tariffs, in part, to fund his tax cut package, which has finally got through a House of Representatives committee and could be voted on later this week. This sprawling bill is estimated to add between $3 trillion and $5 trillion to the national debt over a decade, and was one reason Moody's last week joined its peers in downgrading the U.S.

Ratings really haven't mattered much since the financial crisis, when the subprime debacle tarred the reputation of some agencies and funds abandoned triple-A mandates.

Yet the news seems to have struck a nerve with foreign investors already dismayed by the erratic nature of U.S. policy-making, and has Wall Street futures down 1% or more today. Ten-year yields are up around 5 basis points and the dollar is down, albeit modestly.

For their part, euro bulls will be relieved by the surprise victory of pro-EU candidate in the Romanian elections, along with wins by centrist parties in Poland and Portugal.