INTERNATIONAL
So, it's a framework for a deal, maybe?

A vague US-China trade truce awaits Trump and Xi's approval while markets stay cautious amid tariff, CPI, and bond auction concerns. - FREEPIK
A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Wayne Cole.
AI Brief
- A tentative US-China trade framework was reached but awaits approval from Trump and Xi, with few details disclosed.
- Markets reacted mildly due to uncertainty over the deals durability and legal status of recent US tariffs.
- Investors are watching US inflation data and bond auctions closely, as tariff effects and economic fears linger.
This deal now needs to be approved by Trump and China President Xi Jinping, and then implemented. At least the Chinese side thought the talks were "rational", which was a step forward.
Details were scant, though the U.S. team did claim that it would resolve China's export restrictions on rare earth minerals and magnets. What Beijing got in return was not yet clear.
Neither was it clear whether this truce would last any longer than the last one, which might be why the early market response was less than enthusiastic. U.S. and European stock futures were all down between 0.2% and 0.6%, and Asian shares modestly firmer.
There is still the small matter of whether the April 2 levies are actually legal, with a federal appeals court allowing the tariffs to remain in effect while it reviews a lower court decision blocking them.
The dollar and Treasuries were little changed as the U.S. CPI looms later in the day and any upside surprise would fan stagflationary fears, to the detriment of both markets.
Analysts assume lower energy prices will keep the headline rise to 0.2%, while the core is seen up 0.3%. Attention will be on whether tariffs show up in goods prices, though the full impact is likely to appear from June onwards. Measures of volatility suggest investors really aren't prepared for a high number, so anything in line will be a relief.
Treasuries also have a 10-year auction to weather, with the focus on the share taken by indirect bidders which include foreign central banks. The latter took a hefty 71% of the May sale, while primary dealers got just 8.9%. A repeat performance would be warmly welcomed.
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