INTERNATIONAL
South China Sea - Geopolitical circus serves no ones’ interest
Philippine inter-agency members including Philippine Navy, Philippine Coast Guard and Philippine National Police – Maritime Group, hold Philippine flag at Sandy Cay 2, South China Sea, April 27, 2025. - National Task Force West Philippine Sea/via AP
This article first appeared on Aurora Insights
THE South China Sea has once again caught headlines, with China and Philippines’ recent planting of national flags on a small and seemingly insignificant spit of land.
Sandy Cay is a tiny sandbank in the disputed Spratly islands being claimed by both countries. Under UNCLOS, it is defined as a “rock” located in an expansive body of water measuring 3.5 million sq km that as per international maritime law generates a scant 12 nm of territorial sea.
At face value, it is incomprehensible that countries go to such lengths to fight for a small landmass of only 200 sqm in the midst of a large expanse of ocean. The ridiculous flag-raising antics are classic thuggish behaviours and reminiscent of low budget pirate movies.
But beyond the theatrical feel and nature of the events, this sliver of land carries actual strategic and political value worthy of the two countries’ actions and positioning.
Sandy Cay is situated 9.3 nautical miles (nm) northeast of China’s military post Subi Reef and only 1.5 nm northwest away from the Filipino-occupied Thitu Island.
Politically, both countries want to demonstrate their abilities to protect their core interests, i.e. territorial integrity in the South China Sea and the ability to project power.
For China, it is to assert its dominance as China interprets Philippine defiance as being emboldened by its alliance with the U.S. Clearly, as the strategic rivalry with the U.S. intensifies, it becomes more critical for China to signal strength to both its domestic and international audience.
The South China Sea has always been an important rallying point for domestic politics in the Philippines. For the Philippines, it’s important to project resolve in the face of bullying by China, a much stronger neighbour posing an immediate security risk, as it strives to recalibrate its political and economic footing policies in face of a fast-changing great power dynamics in the region. Any conflict with China would be a David versus Goliath situation, and it is prudent for the Philippines to rally public support.
So, should we be worried about the incident?
Stripped of the respective theatrics and internal political frameworks and looked at through a strictly geopolitical lens, here is what the incident shows us about the reality that matters to the world and the emerging New World Order.
Given that this comes after the Filipino held the annual “Balikatan” exercise with the U.S. military, in which some 17,000 soldiers took part and long perceived by China as provocative, the Sandy Cay incident is merely a posturing move by China.
China is unlikely to escalate, as it does not serve China’s interest for the situation in South China Sea to get out of control, as it now faces challenges on many fronts.
However, it does stoke fears that China is seizing this opportunity to test Philippine resolve as confidence in the region declines in the U.S. security commitment under the new administration. It is certainly an irony, coming just after Xi’s recent Southeast Asia tour which was lauded as great success in bolstering ties with Southeast Asian countries.
Once again, it highlights Southeast Asia’s dilemma of balancing ties between the U.S. and China, while maintaining the regional power balance.
Unfortunately, the region will continue to be served up with a geopolitical circus motivated by political brinkmanship, similar to the ones observed all around our world today. It is a stark reminder that simmering tensions in the South China Sea will continue to haunt the global peace of mind.
The South China Sea warrants clear heads to prevail from all parties involved, and responsible leaders to take proactive actions to resolve the conflict.
Aurora Insights is a geopolitical risk analysis company that delivers strategic insights on Asia. We help business leaders & policymakers make informed decisions and advance their mission in a way that is sustainable, inclusive, forward-looking.
