WASHINGTON: At a summit with South Korean leader Yoon Suk Yeol on Wednesday, U.S. President Joe Biden will seek to reassure South Koreans that the U.S. nuclear umbrella is sufficient protection from North Korean attack.
But with North Korean missiles now a direct threat to the United States, an old Cold-War dilemma has resurfaced: would the United States risk nuclear retaliation against itself to defend an ally?
WHY IS SOUTH KOREA WORRIED?
U.S. "extended deterrence" protection for South Korea rests on a simple, if grim, assumption: if North Korea were to attack South Korea with nuclear weapons, it would face devastating U.S. retaliatory strikes.
For years after Pyongyang first tested a nuclear bomb in 2006 this was a believable threat - North Korea had relatively few bombs and limited ability to send them far beyond its own borders.
But its arsenal has grown and it now has intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) that can reach U.S. cities, making the cost of defending South Korea potentially far higher.
Skeptical that the United States would really risk its own cities to defend its ally - the more so after former President Donald Trump questioned the value of the South Korean alliance when he was in office - many South Koreans now support the idea of their country developing its own nuclear weapons.
A poll last month found over 64% of South Koreans support this, something the Biden administration is set against.
WHAT ARE SOUTH KOREA'S OPTIONS?
Yoon vowed in his election campaign to seek redeployment of U.S. tactical nuclear weapons in South Korea and possibly "nuclear sharing," meaning joint command over U.S. weapons. In January, he raised the possibility that Seoul might someday need to develop its own nuclear arsenal, saying it could do this quickly given its scientific expertise.
Yoon never pursued redeployment of tactical nuclear weapons, which Washington said it would not support, and walked back his comments on a South Korean bomb, saying his administration was committed to the nuclear non-proliferation treaty (NPT).
But his comments have driven a growing debate that one former senior U.S. defense official said threatens to normalize a once unthinkable concept of a South Korean nuclear arsenal.
WHAT TO EXPECT FROM THE BIDEN-YOON SUMMIT
To counter such sentiment, Biden will pledge what senior U.S. officials say will be "substantial" steps to strengthen extended deterrence. A "Washington Declaration" will include creation of a "Nuclear Consultative Group" to give South Korea additional insight on U.S. planning for major contingencies and "a voice in those deliberations," one official said.
The aim was to make clear "our absolute and enduring commitment to provide extended deterrence to (South Korea), including, as necessary, a decisive response," another said.
The leaders will announce plans to make deterrence more visible through regular deployments of strategic assets, including a first U.S. nuclear ballistic-missile submarine visit to South Korea since the early 1980s.
However, the officials stressed there was "no vision" of returning U.S. nuclear weapons to the Korean peninsula and that decisions on their use was the sole authority of U.S. president, while Seoul would reaffirm its commitment to the NPT and its non-nuclear status.
WHAT WOULD BE THE IMPLICATIONS OF A NUCLEAR SOUTH KOREA?
Nuclear expert Siegfried Hecker warned in January there could be disastrous downsides to Seoul acquiring its own bomb, spurring North Korea to build an even bigger arsenal and likely triggering highly damaging sanctions on South Korea's economy.
Despite South Korea's technical expertise and civilian nuclear program, creating a nuclear arsenal would take years and could spell the end of its U.S. alliance and the protection of the U.S. nuclear umbrella, he wrote.
It would also threaten worldwide non-proliferation efforts.
"South Korea would be the first democratic country to withdraw from the NPT, dealing a blow to decades of U.S. leadership in preventing nuclear proliferation," Hecker said. "Washington would have no choice but to condemn and counter the South's decision to build the bomb."
"The South can have its own nuclear arsenal - at great expense and sacrifice - or work with the Americans to remain under the nuclear umbrella with American troops stationed on the peninsula. It cannot have both."
Reuters
Wed Apr 26 2023
South Korean leader Yoon Suk Yeol vowed in his election campaign to seek redeployment of US tactical nuclear weapons in South Korea and possibly "nuclear sharing," meaning joint command over US weapons. - REUTERS
Hamas set to release first hostages under Gaza ceasefire deal, Israel says
If successful, the ceasefire would halt fighting that has razed much of heavily urbanised Gaza, killed over 46,000 people.
Pakistan's Imran Khan handed 14 years jail term in land graft case
Imran Khan's wife Bushra Bibi was also found guilty and sentenced to seven years in prison.
'It starts now': South Korea's President Yoon defiant as police closed in
Yoon Suk-Yeol remains in detention and is refusing to talk to investigators.
Japanese woman charged with concealing baby's birth
Noda Junko pleaded not guilty to a charge of concealing the birth of a baby girl by dumping the infant in a shopping mall toilet in Cheras.
ASEAN Sec-Gen attends 4th ADGMIN + U.S. meeting
ADGMIN the U.S. is a series of meetings between the ASEAN Digital Ministers' Meeting (ADGMIN) and the United States.
Najib admits relying on Jho Low's assistance despite doubts and discomfort
Najib reveals that on March 6, 2015, Tan Sri Tong Kooi Ong told him Jho Low was guilty of wrongdoing and should be investigated.
Malaysia, UK strengthen trade and investment ties in inaugural ministerial-led Joint Economic and Trade Committee meeting
The UK was Malaysia's 21st-largest trading partner from January to November 2024 and the fourth-largest trading partner in Europe.
448 children from GISB homes returned to their families - Nancy
Datuk Seri Nancy Shukri assures parents wishing to reclaim their children need not worry and encouraged them to approach the ministry.
TikTok's fight against going dark gains support from key US lawmakers
The prospect of a TikTok ban has already triggered some users to seek alternatives.
China's population falls for a third consecutive year
The National Bureau of Statistics says the total number of people in China dropped by 1.39 million to 1.408 billion in 2024.
Hardline Israeli minister Ben-Gvir threatens to quit over Gaza deal
Itamar Ben-Gvir says he would resign from Netanyahu's govt if it ratifies the ceasefire deal in Gaza, which he has strongly opposed.
US says Gaza ceasefire to start as planned despite 'loose end'
We're tying up that loose end as we speak, says Antony Blinken.
Meta's 'Community Notes' model will not apply to paid ads
Community Notes on Meta Platforms will be enabled for organic content, posts that Meta hasn't been paid to promote.
South Korea investigators to file request to extend President Yoon's detention
Investigators must request court approval for a detention warrant to hold Yoon Suk-Yeol in custody for up to 20 more days.
Israel set to approve Gaza ceasefire, hostage deal, Netanyahu's office says
The security cabinet would meet on Friday before a full meeting of the cabinet later to approve the deal, Netanyahu's office says.
Bird feathers, blood found in both engines of crashed jet in South Korea, source says
Two minutes before the pilot declared the Mayday emergency call, air traffic control had urged caution due to "bird activity" in the area.
TNB’s UK venture in RE to benefit Malaysia in tech transfer - PM
The Prime Minister emphasises that Malaysia is actively seeking new investments in the RE sector, driven by robust economic growth.
PM visits Battersea Power Station, Malaysia’s iconic and largest investment in UK
Battersea Power Station is one of Europe's largest regeneration projects.
Meta in final process to obtain ASP Class Licence - Fahmi
The Communications Minister is also in talks with Microsoft as LinkedIn's Malaysian users may surpass 8 mln in the first quarter of 2025.
What can Trump do through executive orders?
An executive order is an order issued unilaterally by the president that has the force of law.