Thailand-Cambodia: What’s needed for lasting peace?

According to a Cambodian expert, Bangkok’s military strikes have reached deep into Cambodian territory, up to 90 kilometres into provinces far from the border..

“It has very much increased the negative feelings of Cambodians,” said Dr Deth Sok Udom, Senior Fellow at the Cambodian Institute for Cooperation and Peace.

“Everyone is very frustrated and showed a great extent of anger toward the disproportionate level of aggression by the Thai military.”

He added that citizens largely understand the latest clashes are driven by domestic Thai politics, noting that conflicts between the two countries have repeatedly occurred over the past century.

“International factors were sometimes moderating, sometimes escalating it, but it was driven largely by domestic politics in both countries.

“Increasingly, since 2008, Thai political fragmentation has been one major driving factor that leads to this unending cycle of conflict.”

Since December 7, the clashes have resulted in more than 30 people dead and up to 800,000 displaced.

Cambodia’s Ministry of Education, Youth and Sport reported that over 1,000 schools have been forced to close amid border hostilities, disrupting classes for more than 240,000 students.

Thailand has demanded Cambodia be the first to declare a halt in fighting, describing Phnom Penh as “the aggressor onto Thai territory”.

According to Deth, the move reads less like a ceasefire agreement and more like a “dictation requiring Cambodia to surrender.”

“The prevailing view is that this is not something that could be trustworthy, because if Thailand could break the ceasefire that was signed under U.S. President Donald Trump, there is no reason to believe that the country would be able to hold a ceasefire unilaterally this way,” he said.

The latest clashes have shattered a ceasefire agreement reached at the ASEAN Summit in October, following five days of bloody fighting in July.

China has reportedly dispatched its Special Envoy for Asian Affairs to Thailand and Cambodia to facilitate dialogue between the neighbours.

Trump has also attempted to intervene, claiming last week that both sides had agreed to a ceasefire starting Saturday night–a deal Bangkok has denied.

Deth said the biggest requirement to bring a halt to cross-border hostilities would be political will from both sides. Cambodia, he said, is always receptive to ceasefire proposals

“As a country that has just gone through reconstruction and rebirth of the nation in the past three decades, all Cambodians would welcome peace.

“They would especially generally encourage the Thai population to also put pressure on their government and force them to return to the ceasefire agreement.” he said.

From Thailand’s perspective, Cambodia continues to pose a security threat, particularly over the presence of landmines along the border.

Dr Roostum Vansu, Lecturer of Conflict and Peace Studies at Prince of Songka University, said Malaysia as ASEAN chair this year had a key responsibility in pressuring both sides to de-escalate.

“Anwar plays a very important role,” he said. “But for the other ASEAN countries, we don’t observe much unity in putting pressure on this conflict.”

Roostum added that it was crucial for the bloc to work with external partners, such as the United States, to ensure both Thailand and Cambodia return to the negotiating table.

However, Roostum warned that without addressing the underlying causes of the dispute, any ceasefire agreement would be short-lived.

“It will be useless if we reach a ceasefire agreement but the root issues are not addressed.”

Deth also said it was crucial for ASEAN to take a firmer and more proactive stance.