Thailand set for bumpy ride as PM faces judgement day in court

BANGKOK: Thailand's Constitutional Court will on Friday decide the fate of Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra in a case that could see her dismissed after only a year in power, bringing the prospect of turmoil ahead whatever the outcome.

AI Brief

Paetongtarn is under fire for a leaked call with Cambodia's Hun Sen that appeared submissive and sparked national outrage.
Her position as prime minister is at risk, with a court verdict pending and her coalition hanging by a thread.
If removed, forming a new government will be difficult due to political fragmentation and limited strong candidates.

Paetongtarn, the daughter of influential billionaire Thaksin Shinawatra, is accused of violating ethics in a leaked June telephone call with Cambodia's former leader Hun Sen when both countries were at the brink of an armed border conflict.

The 39-year-old appeared to kowtow to Hun Sen, prompting outrage and protests that have left her coalition government hanging by a thread. She has apologised and said she wanted to defuse tensions and save lives.

Fighting on the border erupted a few weeks after the call but a ceasefire is now in place.

Paetongtarn could become the fifth premier in 17 years to be removed by the Constitutional Court, underlining its central role in a long-running power struggle during which the Shinawatra political dynasty has endured two military coups and the fall of three of its governments.

The verdict is due from 3 p.m. (0800 GMT) and if she is dismissed, a flurry of horse-trading is expected before parliament chooses the next prime minister, who could come from her ruling Pheu Thai party, her fragile coalition, or even the opposition.

"Appointing a new prime minister...will be difficult and may take considerable time," said Stithorn Thananithichot, a political scientist at Chulalongkorn University.

"It's not easy for all parties to align their interests," he said. "Pheu Thai will be at a disadvantage ... bargaining power will belong to all parties except Pheu Thai."

There are five people eligible to become prime minister from candidates submitted prior to the 2023 election.

Only one is from Pheu Thai, 77-year-old Chaikasem Nitisiri, a former attorney general with limited cabinet experience.

Others include former premier Prayuth Chan-ocha, who has retired from politics and led a coup against the last Pheu Thai government in 2014, and Anutin Charnvirakul, a deputy premier before he withdrew his party from Paetongtarn's coalition over the leaked phone call.

If Paetongtarn survives, it may not be for long. Her coalition has a razor-thin majority and could face protests from nationalists and parliamentary challenges that would hamstring efforts to implement its agenda and revive a flagging economy.

"The government would be unstable," said analyst Stithorn. "Paetongtarn lost credibility from the day the phone conversation was leaked."