Thailand’s Anutin faces four-month test as new PM

While the conservative leader of the Bhumjaithai Party is still forming his Cabinet, he has pledged to steer the interim government into fresh polls within four months.

Among his top priorities in office will be stimulating economic growth and addressing security issues, according to Dr Pongphisoot Busbarat, Director of the Institute of Security and International Studies in Thailand.

“If he wants to stay during this period, he will want to show how his government is effective and probably better for his party in the next election,” he told Astro AWANI.

His first big test could come on the foreign policy front, as months of tension with Cambodia recently escalated into a border conflict with Thailand that left about 40 people dead and displaced tens of thousands.

Anutin’s premiership now begins barely six weeks after a fragile ceasefire was struck.

Domestically, the former Deputy Prime Minister and Interior Minister faces a raft of other challenges, including including flood preparedness during the monsoon season and tackling trafficking and drug smuggling.

Anutin clinched the premiership in a parliamentary vote last Friday with backing from the People’s Party, the successor to the dissolved Move Forward Party that holds the largest bloc of seats.

His appointment followed a leaked phone call between former Thai premier Paetongtarn Shinawatra and ex-Cambodian leader Hun Sen, which led to Paetongtarn’s dismissal by the courts for an ethics violation.

“But in reality, besides these official policies, he will have to try to maintain the stability of a minority government,” said Pongphisoot.

“The opposition is already pressing for constitutional amendments and for Parliament to be dissolved within four months.”

The constitutional timeline for fresh elections starts once Anutin’s Cabinet is sworn in and his policies are presented to Parliament, expected by the end of September.

That suggests a likely vote around March of next year, Pongphisoot said.

As Thai citizens prepare to head to the ballot box once again, questions remain over whether voter fatigue is setting in across the country.

Despite repeated rounds of political upheaval, Pongphisoot believed turnout will remain strong at above 70%, pointing to voters’ determination to “reward or punish parties” amid the current political climate.

Historically, voter turnout in the country has been relatively high. Statistics in 2023 showed a 76% turnout, and 75% in 2019.

“I think the Thai voters are still active. Of course, they kind of get tired of this political game, but they still want to express their voice and opinion through casting a vote,” said Pongphisoot.

He added that the next election could see a more fragmented vote as support shifts away from the formerly ruling Pheu Thai party and previous reformist favourite, People’s Party.

“There is a big portion of the People's Party who supported this party before, who have been disappointed with the party's decision to support Anutin.

“The Pheu Thai Party might lose some of their vote as well because of the mismanagement of the Thai-Cambodian conflict.”