NEW DELHI: US President Donald Trump last Wednesday announced 25% tariffs on Indian imports from August 7 and threatened more penalties over New Delhi's purchases of Russian oil.
AI Brief
Below is a timeline of how India, once seen as the frontrunner for a U.S. deal, ended up facing steep tariffs after Trump escalated tensions, and called it a "dead economy."
February - Modi visits Washington
March - Bilateral talks gain momentum
May - Further rounds of talks
JULY - Hardening of stance
Delegation returns to New Delhi without a breakthrough.
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AI Brief
- India and the US were close to a trade deal but miscommunication and political missteps led to its collapse.
- Trump imposed 25% tariffs on Indian goods and criticised India's Russian oil imports.
- Talks may resume but a breakthrough likely needs direct communication between Modi and Trump.
Below is a timeline of how India, once seen as the frontrunner for a U.S. deal, ended up facing steep tariffs after Trump escalated tensions, and called it a "dead economy."
February - Modi visits Washington
- Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi agrees to work toward a limited trade deal by fall 2025 with the United States and expand the bilateral trade deal to $500 billion by 2030. He also pledged to boost energy purchases from the U.S.
March - Bilateral talks gain momentum
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Trade Minister Piyush Goyal visits Washington; meets Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and U.S. Trade Representative Jamisen Greer. Later in March, U.S. officialsvisit Delhi for talks.
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India says negotiations are progressing well.
- USTR annual report flags India's high tariffs, non-tariff barriers, data laws, and patent issues.
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AprilBreakthrough signs emerge
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During Vice President J.D. Vance’s visit, both sides finalise the terms of reference for bilateral talks.
- Indian officials say a deal could be signed before the July 9 deadline.
May - Further rounds of talks
- Goyal travels to Washington with lead negotiator Rajesh Agrawal for trade talks. India expects a favourable outcome is near.
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U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick on June 3 says the U.S. and India are making progress and a deal could be finalised soon.
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Trump says a "big" trade deal with India is coming soon.
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Indian officials tell Reuters that trade talks have hit a roadblock over disagreements on import duties largely over farm goods, dashing hopes of a deal ahead of July 9.
- At a rally in the eastern Indian state of Odisha on June 20, Modi says he declined Trump's invitation to Washington.
JULY - Hardening of stance
Delegation returns to New Delhi without a breakthrough.
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Trade Minister Piyush Goyal says on July 4 that India will not do trade deals to meet deadlines and national interest will be "supreme."
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Indian trade delegation travels to Washington again in mid-July for the fifth round of talks, aiming to break the deadlock.
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Modi responds in Parliament about ceasefire with Pakistan: "No world leader asked us to stop the operation."
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No high-level outreach from Indian leadership.
- On July 31, Trump imposes 25% tariffs on Indian imports, warns of further penalties for countries buying Russian oil.
