TIMELINE: How India-US trade talks unravelled

NEW DELHI: US President Donald Trump last Wednesday announced 25% tariffs on Indian imports from August 7 and threatened more penalties over New Delhi's purchases of Russian oil.

AI Brief

India and the US were close to a trade deal but miscommunication and political missteps led to its collapse.
Trump imposed 25% tariffs on Indian goods and criticised India's Russian oil imports.
Talks may resume but a breakthrough likely needs direct communication between Modi and Trump.

Below is a timeline of how India, once seen as the frontrunner for a U.S. deal, ended up facing steep tariffs after Trump escalated tensions, and called it a "dead economy."

February - Modi visits Washington

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi agrees to work toward a limited trade deal by fall 2025 with the United States and expand the bilateral trade deal to $500 billion by 2030. He also pledged to boost energy purchases from the U.S.

March - Bilateral talks gain momentum

Trade Minister Piyush Goyal visits Washington; meets Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and U.S. Trade Representative Jamisen Greer. Later in March, U.S. officialsvisit Delhi for talks.
India says negotiations are progressing well.
USTR annual report flags India's high tariffs, non-tariff barriers, data laws, and patent issues.
AprilBreakthrough signs emerge
During Vice President J.D. Vance’s visit, both sides finalise the terms of reference for bilateral talks.
Indian officials say a deal could be signed before the July 9 deadline.

May - Further rounds of talks

Goyal travels to Washington with lead negotiator Rajesh Agrawal for trade talks. India expects a favourable outcome is near.

June - Mixed signals

U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick on June 3 says the U.S. and India are making progress and a deal could be finalised soon.
Trump says a "big" trade deal with India is coming soon.
Indian officials tell Reuters that trade talks have hit a roadblock over disagreements on import duties largely over farm goods, dashing hopes of a deal ahead of July 9.
At a rally in the eastern Indian state of Odisha on June 20, Modi says he declined Trump's invitation to Washington.

JULY - Hardening of stance

Delegation returns to New Delhi without a breakthrough.

Trade Minister Piyush Goyal says on July 4 that India will not do trade deals to meet deadlines and national interest will be "supreme."
Indian trade delegation travels to Washington again in mid-July for the fifth round of talks, aiming to break the deadlock.
Modi responds in Parliament about ceasefire with Pakistan: "No world leader asked us to stop the operation."
No high-level outreach from Indian leadership.
On July 31, Trump imposes 25% tariffs on Indian imports, warns of further penalties for countries buying Russian oil.