Trump 2.0 would be a disaster for climate policy

Donald Trump is no friend of the environment.

And a second Trump presidency, were he to win in November, would have dire implications for the planet.

The Republican nominee has a track record of anti-green rhetoric and policy, calling environmental protections a “scam” and telling supporters that if he returns to office “we’re going to drill, baby, drill”.

Consider his track record from his first stint in the White House.

Trump 1.0 was marked by a systematic dismantling of environmental protections brought in by his predecessor, President Barack Obama. Trump 2.0 would be the same, overturning or dismantling a swathe of initiatives brought in by President Joe Biden.

Trump’s most consequential action was his 2017 announcement to withdraw the United States from the Paris Agreement, positioning America – in many eyes - as “a rogue state” when it came to climate diplomacy.

Trump’s notable domestic reversals included modifications to the Clean Air Act and the rollback of the Clean Power Plan, which had set ambitious benchmarks for reducing carbon emissions from coal-fired power plants.

Additionally, Trump revoked Obama’s executive order that mandated a 40 percent reduction in federal greenhouse gas emissions, reflecting a broader disregard for the environment.

In its place, Trump’s energy policy lifted bans and proceeded with deregulation that restricted oil and gas exploration in ecologically sensitive areas of Alaska and Utah. He even cancelled their obligation to report methane emissions – a potent greenhouse gas.

This shift not only threatened local ecosystems but also signalled a dramatic shift away from sustainable practices toward unabated resource extraction. Even air pollution regulations were diluted for coal-based power plants.

In fact, Brookings identified 74 actions under Trump that weakened environmental protection while the New York Times published a list of 100 environmental rules that were rolled back under him.

In stark contrast, the Biden administration has prioritised climate change as a cornerstone of its policy agenda, reminiscent of Franklin D. Roosevelt's transformative New Deal.

This modern "Green New Deal" aims to catapult the US into a new era of environmental responsibility and innovation. Central to Biden's strategy is the hefty investment in climate and energy infrastructure, emphasising the transition to electric vehicles and the expansion of renewable energy production.

The FDR-styled Green New Deal, a trillion dollar project, has components to set up more EV and battery manufacturing plants, loans to businesses involved in climate resilient technology, associated infrastructure and a whole set of tax breaks.

Biden has sought to promote renewable energy by providing tax incentives through the Inflation Reduction Act. However, the rules governing these incentives are yet to be finished.

While there is a lot of promise in Biden’s climate policy initiatives, the truth remains that most of them have barely kicked off while a few remain at the level of ideas. This leaves a lot of room for reversal.

Less than one-fifth of the trillion-dollar planned green investment has been spent.

Any Trump administration would also be responsible for writing many of the unfinished rules governing the tax incentives that promised to promote renewables.

Not only could Trump reverse this project, but he could also very well divert it towards the oil, gas, and coal industry. This is not only an assumption but a policy agenda forwarded in the Republican Project 2025.

The 900-page policy document advocates the removal of restrictions on oil and gas drilling on public land, weakening environmental clearances, and shutting down even smaller federal programmes aimed at ensuring public health and environment.

It even suggests closing National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (crucial for data and research on climate change) and calls for a National Hurricane Centre to present data "neutrally" without supporting any side in the climate debate. It also proposes to cut federal support in disaster response and preparedness.

Trump has openly criticised Biden's climate policies, labelling them as part of a "Green New Scam".

His rhetoric at the Republican National Convention made it clear that, if re-elected, he intends to dismantle Biden's green initiatives, which he views as economically burdensome and unnecessary.

While a president is expected to spend the money in accordance with the appropriation agenda of the Congress, Trump is unlikely to toe the line. He has already promised to restore impoundment – presidential power to withhold Congress approved spending.

There is a lot to worry about if Trump returns to White House.

His administration might not be able to rollback the green initiatives already under way but most of the appropriated funds are yet to be used.

Despite Trump’s popular support within the Republican Party, he may face challenges from even Republican states which are set to benefit from the new manufacturing and infrastructure initiatives.

Further, even in his first term, Trump’s deregulation efforts were consistently challenged in the Supreme Court. However, with the new composition of the bench, there is less hope from the judicial system.

The re-election of Donald Trump could significantly alter the US approach to environmental issues, potentially reverting to policies that prioritise economic gains over ecological sustainability.

This shift would not only impact the US but the international community.

The US continues to be one of the biggest emitters of greenhouse gases as well as a financing source for climate adaptation and mitigation efforts.

As such, the stakes of this election extend far beyond national borders, influencing the collective environmental future of our planet.

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