KUALA LUMPUR: U.S. President Donald Trump may frame the next phase of the conflict with Iran as the responsibility of its citizens, arguing that the onus for political change now lies with the Iranian public.

Emeritus Professor Amin Saikal, of the Australian National University’s Middle Eastern studies programme, said the U.S. administration appears to be preparing a narrative that its primary military objectives have been met. This could allow Trump to declare a form of victory and pivot toward a domestic-led transition narrative in Tehran.

“Trump has indicated many times that he believes he has already won the war,” Saikal told AWANI International. “That could provide a pathway for him, at some point, to declare that the United States has achieved its objectives by striking the targets it intended and weakening the Iranian government.”

Since launching the military campaign alongside Israel on February 28, the U.S. has targeted air defense systems, nuclear facilities, and senior leaders - including the strike that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. 

When the operation began, Trump urged the Iranian public to “take over your government.” However, the strategy faced hurdles. A Reuters report on Wednesday, citing current U.S. intelligence assessments, found that the Iranian government’s leadership structure remains largely intact under successor Mojtaba Khamenei and is unlikely to collapse in the near term.

The conflict has also become a financial and political burden. The administration reported that the first six days of the war cost at least US$11.3 billion.

“This is going to be a very expensive war for the United States to sustain,” Saikal said, noting that public opinion polls show roughly 60% of Americans now oppose the ongoing military action.