Trump's Venezuela gambit tests investor appetite for geopolitical risk

Investors held their nerve on Monday, with stocks in Asia surging and oil prices down modestly although safe-haven flows lifted gold prices, after President Trump said the U.S. would take control of the oil-producing nation.

While Washington has not made such a direct intervention in Latin America since the invasion of Panama in 1989, Trump's threats against Colombia and Mexico highlighted the aggressive shift in U.S. policy and brought geopolitical perils back to the fore for financial markets at the start of the year.

"We're being reminded that geopolitical risks are much larger than some number cast on imports," said Vishnu Varathan, head of macro research for Asia Ex-Japan at Mizuho Securities in Singapore.

"The case and the question in mind is - Is broader LatAm stability at risk? Then it's a different proposition isn't it, the flow-through effects and all could be much greater."

Analysts and investors said the relatively calm market reaction to Maduro's capture was because Venezuela's oil production relative to global output is small and it would take years of investment for production to catch up.

Still, the far-reaching impact of the military actions will weigh on sentiment, although the move could unlock Venezuela's vast oil reserves and boost risk assets over the longer-term.

American oil companies are prepared to tackle the difficult task of entering Venezuela and investing to restore production in the South American country, Trump said.

"There should be broader geopolitical implications from this event, but in my view, the financial markets are not very efficient in pricing such risks accurately," said Tai Hui, chief market strategist for Asia-Pacific at J.P. Morgan Asset Management.

MARKETS' FIRST TEST IN 2026

U.S. and global stocks made a fast start to the new year after ending 2025 near record highs, having notched double-digit gains in a tumultuous year dominated by tariff wars, central bank policy and simmering geopolitical tensions.

The immediate impact is likely to be seen in the defence sector as countries are expected to keep raising defence spending in the wake of Trump's readiness to use U.S. military force as part of his broader policy agenda. At the same time, the heightened uncertainty around U.S. policies will weigh on the dollar and its safe-haven status, analysts say.

The U.S. dollar firmed a bit on Monday but is coming off its worst year since 2017, dropping over 9% against major currencies in 2025.

For investors, Trump's actions in Venezuela have also raised uneasy questions about their implications for China's posture towards Taiwan and whether Washington might push more aggressively for regime change in Iran.

However, Li Fang-kuo, chairman of Taiwan food conglomerate Uni-President 1216.TW stock investment advisory unit, said investors are not worried that China might attack Taiwan.

"Yes, China has staged military drills around Taiwan, but we've seen nothing like the months of escalation we saw from the U.S. (against Venezuela)."

Indeed, some analysts say investors have increasingly become used to Trump's various foreign policy and military gambits.

Charu Chanana, chief investment strategist at Saxo, said the U.S. action in Venezuela is more of a geopolitical bombshell rather than an oil shock for now, noting that unless it threatens the broader supply chain, investors tend to rotate back to rates, earnings, and positioning.

"We’re in a regime where geopolitics has become a persistent feature, not a surprise."