US, China seek to avoid trade war escalation, salvage Trump-Xi meeting in Malaysia talks

The talks on the sidelines of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations summit will chart a path forward after Trump threatened new 100% tariffs on Chinese goods and other trade curbs starting on November 1, in retaliation for China's vastly expanded export controls on rare earth magnets and minerals.

The recent actions, which also include an expanded U.S. export blacklist that covers thousands more Chinese firms, have disrupted a delicate trade truce crafted by U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng over four previous meetings since May.

China's top trade negotiator Li Chenggang is also participating in the talks. A Reuters witness saw Li arriving alongside He at Kuala Lumpur's Merdeka 118 tower, the second-tallest building in the world, where the venue for the talks is located.

The Malaysian government and the U.S. and Chinese sides have provided few details about the meeting or any plans to brief the media about outcomes.

TALKING POINTS

The three officials will try to pave the way for Trump and Xi to meet next Thursday at an Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in South Korea, a high-stakes conversation that could revolve around some interim relief on tariffs, technology controls and Chinese purchases of U.S. soybeans.

Minutes before the talks started, Trump left Washington for his tour of Asia and laid out several talking points for the meeting with Xi.

He said farmers, hit by a Chinese freeze on U.S. soybean purchases, and the democratic island of Taiwan, which China claims as its own territory, would be on the list of topics discussed. Trump added he does not have any plans to visit Taiwan.

He also flagged the release of jailed Hong Kong media tycoon Jimmy Lai, whose case has become the most high-profile example of China's crackdown on rights and freedoms in the Asian financial hub.

"We have a lot to talk about with President Xi, and he has a lot to talk about with us. I think we'll have a good meeting," Trump said.

Trump left Washington on Friday night for a five-day trip to Malaysia, Japan and South Korea, his first to the region and longest journey abroad since taking office in January.

Aboard Air Force One, he told reporters that he would also like China to help Washington in its dealings with Russia.

DELICATE BALANCE

Josh Lipsky, international economics chair at the Atlantic Council in Washington, said Bessent, Greer and He must first find a way to mitigate their dispute over U.S. technology export curbs and China's rare earths controls, which Washington wants to reverse.

"I'm not sure the Chinese can agree to that. It's the primary leverage that they have," Lipsky said.

Some of those announcements may fall to Trump, who is due to arrive in the Malaysian capital on Sunday.

"We won't know if Beijing has successfully counterbalanced the U.S.'s export controls with restrictions of their own or if they've induced a continuation of an escalatory spiral until Trump and Xi meet," said Scott Kennedy, a China economics expert at Washington's Center for Strategic and International Studies.

"If they make a deal, their gambit will have paid off. If there's no deal, then everyone will need to prepare for things to get much nastier."

RARE EARTHS STRANGLEHOLD

The world's two largest economies are seeking to avoid a return of their tariff escalation to triple-digit levels on both sides.

Bessent and Greer's first meeting with He in Geneva in May led to a 90-day truce, which brought down tariffs sharply to about 55% on the U.S. side and 30% on the Chinese side and restarted the flow of magnets. It was extended in subsequent talks in London and Stockholm and was due to expire on November 10.

But the delicate truce frayed at the end of September, when the U.S. Commerce Department vastly expanded an export blacklist to automatically include firms more than 50% owned by companies already on the list, banning U.S. exports to thousands more Chinese firms.

China struck back with the new global rare earth export controls on October 10, aiming to prevent their use in military systems.

Bessent and Greer blasted China's move as a "global supply chain power grab" and vowed the U.S. and its allies would not accept the restrictions. Reuters reported that the Trump administration is considering a plan to up the ante with curbs on a dizzying array of software-powered exports to China, from laptops to jet engines, according to sources familiar with the deliberations.