US security experts say Ukraine's abandonment of NATO goal will not alter peace talks

NEW YORK: Ukraine’s offer to forgo joining the NATO military alliance probably will not significantly change the course of peace talks, two security experts said on Sunday.

AI Brief

Zelenskiy offers to abandon NATO membership in exchange for US and European security guarantees.
Experts say NATO entry was unrealistic, as some view the move as symbolic, others as a major concession.
Speculation grows on what US promised - possibly air patrols or increased military aid if Russia escalates.

During negotiations with U.S. envoys over a potential Ukraine-Russia peace deal, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy on Sunday offered to drop Ukraine's NATO aspirations. Zelenskiy had said security guarantees from the United States, Europe and others instead of joining NATO was a compromise from Ukraine.

"This doesn't move the needle at all," said Justin Logan, director of defense and foreign policy studies at the Cato Institute. "It’s an effort to appear reasonable."

NATO membership for Ukraine has not been realistic in a long time anyway, said Logan and Andrew Michta, a professor of strategic studies at the University of Florida. Michta called Ukraine's NATO admittance a "non-issue" at this point.

There are other ways for nations to try ensuring Ukraine's security, Logan said. U.S. President Donald Trump, in response to Zelenskiy's offer, may commit to the same things the United States has already done to support Ukraine, such as sending weapons and sanctioning Russia, Logan said.

Not everyone dismissed Zelenskiy's offer.

Brett Bruen, a former foreign policy adviser in the Obama administration and now head of the Global Situation Room consultancy, called Ukraine's concession "significant and substantive."

"It's a way for Zelenskiy to contrast Ukraine's willingness for significant concessions for peace at a time when Moscow has been short on any significant concessions," Bruen said. "The question is what did Zelenskiy get in return for backing off a pretty ironclad promise to the Ukrainian people?"

Bruen speculated Trump may have promised to patrol Ukraine's skies or respond to aircraft incursions. The United States may also increase supplies of military aid if Russia were to re-launch a large-scale military offensive, he said.

"Ukraine has got to hedge bets on what Trump promises but they need more than a word," he said. "They need action, some element, that is going to ensure Trump can’t easily wiggle out of these situations."