LONDON: At the start of April, an Indonesian fisherman trawling the waters of the Lombok Strait off Bali, north of Australia, found a cylindrical "torpedo -like" object in his nets bearing the name of a Chinese company.
It was, maritime analysts told news outlets in Asia and Australia, almost certainly an undersea unmanned recording platform, potentially monitoring passing shipping. It was the latest of several suspected Chinese unmanned undersea vehicles found by nearby nations, with the Philippines the latest to announce such a find.
A Chinese Foreign Ministry official did not comment in detail, but said it was not unusual for civilian maritime monitoring equipment to drift into foreign waters.
This week, Beijing accused regional U.S. allies of feeding a "Cold War mentality" by increasingly fabricating stories of Chinese actions, dismissing a report by New Zealand that a Chinese firm had tried to install spy equipment on its soil.
One thing, however, is clear: with the world preoccupied by conflicts over the Gulf and Ukraine, Beijing is pressing on with its more subtle but increasingly assertive military and wider posturing in the Pacific, particularly near its shores.
LONG-TERM STAKES ARE AT LEAST AS HIGH AS IN MIDDLE EAST
As multiple nations around the world question long-term US commitment, capability and will to protect them in a conflict, China is presenting its rise as both unstoppable and inevitable.
In the short term, few see a major war in the next few years – at least, not this side of the next major elections on Taiwan in 2028 or the arrival of a new U.S. administration in early 2029.
President Xi Jinping has still to permanently replace many of the generals he purged earlier this the year. Diplomats and analysts see this as a sign of frustration over the true shape of China's military but say it does not rule out more confrontation and coercion.
All sides are making growing commitments to security – with the long-term stakes at least as high as in the more "kinetic" conflicts in the Middle East and Eastern Europe.
"There's no doubt events in the Gulf and elsewhere have drawn attention elsewhere," said former Australian naval officer Jennifer Parker, now a consultant and academic affiliated to several Australian universities. "But China’s own actions have also intensified and expanded, both in the South China Sea and well beyond."
In July, China test-fired a submarine-launched ballistic missile with a dummy warhead into the South Pacific, in May it hosted a major multinational artificial intelligence summit, and its navy has had repeated confrontations with Philippine ships.
The U.S. aircraft carrier USS George Washington joined exercises near the disputed Scarborough Shoal in late July, regional media said, following clashes between Philippines and Chinese vessels including use of water cannon.
Almost as soon as the U.S. carrier departed, a significant Chinese force including frigates, destroyers and assault vessels conducted its own drills, said the reports, which were based on satellite analysis. China said it was conducting patrols.
China's hand is also cited by intelligence agencies and in media in a range of unexplained events, ranging from the now estimated 2.6 million cyber attacks against Taiwan last year, double the number seen in 2023 and still rising fast. Some analysts also suggested China might be to blame for the unexplained severing this week of two Internet cables off western Australia.
DIPLOMAT DESCRIBES RELATIONS AS 'EMBRACING WHILE SPARRING'
Many people now see Beijing's actions both regionally and globally as part of a wider worldwide confrontation that also includes the Russia-Ukraine conflict as well as the Iran war – with China supplying industrial components to Russia and Iran that it denies have any military purpose.
Closer to home, new Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi entered office proclaiming that any move by Beijing against Taiwan might be seen by Tokyo as an "existential" threat. Since then, Chinese officials have repeatedly called Japan "militarist" and accused it of planning future wars.
Chinese warship patrols near disputed Japanese islands have stepped up dramatically this year, sometimes in conjunction with the deployment of Russian warships. Vladimir Putin this week visited Russia's own eastern territories nearest to Japan, with suspicions in Tokyo and beyond that Beijing has demanded greater Kremlin support in that confrontation.
Every government has its own complex relations with Beijing: former Australian ambassador to China Graham Fletcher this month used the phrase "embracing while sparring" to describe his nation's simultaneous efforts to maintain trade and other ties while building defences and working with Washington.
Walking that path successfully, however, is already getting more challenging with time.
Recently retired Philippines Chief of Staff General Romeo Brawner said his nation had also experienced Chinese "cyber warfare, information warfare, cognitive warfare", much of it from the Communist-run "United Front Work" said to coordinate more often covert efforts to increase Beijing's influence.
Other nations– including Indonesia, this week briefly joining Chinese naval forces for joint manoeuvres east of Taiwan – hope to keep cooperation open with both superpowers.
At the U.S. military organised-Military Law and Operations Conference (MILOPs) in the Malaysia capital Kuala Lumpur last week, US officials pushed back against suggestions from regional officials and media suggesting Washington might be pulling back.
Describing the U.S. as "digging in" in the Pacific, Pentagon head of policy Elbridge Colby said in Manila the U.S. was seeking "partners not protectorates", encouraging more military spending from its allies and highlighting growing collaboration.
He avoided mentioning China or Taiwan at all by name, although he reiterated the US commitment to maintain peace in the "first island chain" that includes both Taiwan and Japan.
POTENTIAL STRATEGIC STABILITY WINDOW OPENS FOR US AND CHINA
Colby made no reference to reported worries the U.S. lacks the stocks of missiles and other weapons for any future Pacific war, seen driving a leaked memo from Deputy Defense Secretary Steve Feinberg ordering US weapons manufacturers to deliver immediate plans to fast step up production.
All that points to an even larger picture. One European diplomat in Washington told this columnist they believed those at the top of both Washington and Beijing had concluded that the remainder of the Trump presidency represented a "window" for "strategic stability" for at least a handful of years while each nation worked to reduce dependence on the other.
Industry insiders say the West's defence and technology companies are continuing to struggle to source sufficient components that are not Chinese in origin. That is a measure both of Beijing's success in developing a stranglehold over multiple technologies and, particularly, the effectiveness of its boycott last year of rare earth and crucial mineral exports.
U.S. President Donald Trump described his last meeting with Xi in Beijing in May as "very successful”, quietly pausing a US$14 billion arms deal with Taiwan in what was seen by some as an effort to keep China happy and ensure other deals including soybean and aircraft purchases.
Trump has said he expects to host Xi next month, but that prospect has been clouded by recent U.S. moves including a ban on the import of Chinese humanoid robots and sanctions on seven firms over security and human rights concerns.
There is also talk of further moves against Chinese AI firms and products some computer experts say show signs of having been built by illegally extracting intellectual property from US models.
Perhaps unsurprisingly, there are widespread disagreements over how to approach Chinese talk of leading efforts towards AI regulation, with the World Artificial Intelligence Conference in Shanghai in late July drawing delegates from around the world.
China is also increasingly demanding the repatriation of Chinese people overseas it accuses of a variety of crimes against the state, including those with dual nationality.
Beijing is grabbing every opportunity to show that whoever succeeds Trump in 2029 will face a more powerful China that does not back down on its key stated priorities. How other nations handle that is now amongst the most awkward yet vital questions of the age.
The opinions expressed here are those of Peter Apps, a columnist for Reuters.
