Why South Africa is leading the Genocide case against Israel and can a ceasefire affect it?

WHAT IS SOUTH AFRICA'S CASE?

South Africa filed the case citing Israel’s actions in Gaza as genocidal, referencing mass killings, forced displacement, and starvation.

The African National Congress-led government drew on its apartheid legacy to argue that Palestinians face systemic oppression akin to South Africa’s past.

The 84-page initial filing, brought by South Africa three months into the Gaza war, says that by killing Palestinians in Gaza, causing them serious mental and bodily harm and creating conditions of life "calculated to bring about their physical destruction", Israel is committing genocide against them.

In hearings, South Africa focused on Israel's failure to provide essential food, water, medicine, fuel, shelter and other humanitarian assistance to Gaza during its war with Palestinian militant group Hamas.

It also referred to Israel's sustained bombing campaign which Gaza health authorities say has killed over 70,000 people.

On May 16, 2024 South Africa made a fresh appeal to the court, asking it to order Israeli forces to halt military operations in Rafah, in southern Gaza, where roughly half the territory's 2.3 million people had sought refuge from the offensive further north. It also requested the court to order Israel to completely withdraw from the entire Gaza Strip.

WHAT IS ISRAEL'S RESPONSE?

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has dismissed the genocide accusations as outrageous. Israel says it does what it can to protect Palestinian civilians in Gaza and accuses Hamas of using Palestinians as human shields, an accusation Hamas denies.

Israel says it must have the right to defend itself after the Oct. 7 Hamas-led attack on Israel in which around 1,200 people were killed and more than 250 abducted, according to Israeli tallies.

In counter-arguments on May 17, Israel said South Africa's application "makes a mockery of the Genocide Convention" and asked the court to throw out the request.

Where is the case currently and what is expected next?

South Africa submitted its full evidence in October 2024; Israel’s counter-arguments are due by January 2026.

Oral hearings are expected in 2027, with a final ruling likely in late 2027 or early 2028.

The ICJ has already issued three provisional orders, but Israel has largely failed to comply.

South Africa's President Cyril Ramaphosa confirmed on Tuesday (October 14) the case will proceed regardless of the ceasefire.

What is the historical link between South Africa’s apartheid and the Israeli occupation of Gaza?

Some South Africans, see parallels in segregation, restricted movement, and systemic violence.

Scholars compare Gaza to South African Bantustans—isolated, controlled zones under military rule.

South Africa’s moral stance is rooted in its own liberation struggle and commitment to international solidarity.

Can South Africa win the genocide case, and does global support help?

Legal experts say the case is strong, especially with mounting evidence and UN findings of genocide.

Over 14 countries—including Spain, Ireland, Colombia, and Turkey—have joined or supported South Africa’s case.

This growing coalition adds weight to the legal and diplomatic pressure on Israel.

However, the ICJ cannot enforce rulings; compliance depends on global political will.

Does the Trump-Netanyahu ceasefire deal excuse past war crimes—and can Netanyahu be arrested?

The ceasefire, signed in Egypt, does not nullify past crimes or halt ICJ or ICC proceedings.

The ICC has issued arrest warrants for Netanyahu and Gallant for war crimes, including starvation as a weapon.

124 countries are legally obligated to arrest Netanyahu if he enters their territory, though enforcement is inconsistent. Legal accountability remains possible, but political immunity and global divisions may shield him.