Why Trump proposal on Palestinian displacement from Gaza rings alarm bells in the region

The proposal is likely to heighten fears among Palestinians in Gaza, which had a pre-war population of around 2.3 million, of being driven out of the coastal strip, and stoke concern in Arab states that have long worried about the destabilising impact of any such exodus.

WHAT IS BEHIND THE CONCERNS?

Palestinians have long been haunted by what they call the "Nakba", or catastrophe, when 700,000 of them were dispossessed from their homes during the war that surrounded the creation of Israel in 1948.

Many were driven out or fled to neighbouring Arab states, including to Jordan, Syria and Lebanon, where many of them and their descendants still live in refugee camps. Some went to Gaza. Israel disputes the account that they were forced out.

The latest conflict, currently paused amid a fragile ceasefire agreement, has seen an unprecedented Israeli bombardment and land offensive in Gaza, devastating urban areas.

Most Gazans have been displaced several times during Israel's offensive, launched after Hamas' Oct. 7, 2023 attack on Israel that killed 1,200 people, according to Israeli tallies.

More than 47,000 people have been killed in Gaza since then, according to Palestinian health officials.

HOW HAVE PALESTINIANS MOVED DURING THIS CONFLICT?

Before Israel launched its offensive in 2023, it told Palestinians in north Gaza to move to what it said were safe areas in the south. As the offensive expanded, Israel told them to head further south towards Rafah.

Later in the war, before launching a campaign in Rafah, it instructed them to move to a new designated humanitarian zone in Al-Mawasi, an area that stretches 12 km (7 miles) along the coast, starting from the western areas of Deir Al-Balah in central Gaza to Khan Younis and Rafah in the south.

According to U.N. estimates, up to 85% of the population of Gaza - one of the world's most densely populated areas - have already been displaced from their homes.

COULD A MAJOR DISPLACEMENT FROM GAZA HAPPEN?

Many Palestinians in Gaza have said they would not leave the enclave even if they could because they fear it might lead to another permanent displacement in a repeat of 1948.

Egypt, meanwhile, has kept the border firmly closed except to let a few thousand foreigners, dual nationals and a handful of others leave Gaza.

Egypt and other Arab nations strongly oppose any attempt to push Palestinians over the border.

Yet, the scale of this conflict eclipses other Gaza crises or flare-ups in past decades, as does the humanitarian disaster for Palestinians.

From the earliest days of the conflict, Arab governments, particularly Egypt and Jordan, said Palestinians must not be driven from land where they want to make a future state, which would include the occupied West Bank and Gaza.

Like Palestinians, they fear any mass movement across the border would further undermine prospects for a "two-state solution" - the idea of creating a state of Palestine next to Israel - and leave Arab nations dealing with the consequences.

WHAT HAVE ISRAEL'S GOVERNMENT AND ITS POLITICIANS SAID?

Israel's then-Foreign Minister Israel Katz, now serving as defence minister, said on Feb. 16, 2024, that Israel had no plans to deport Palestinians from Gaza. Israel would coordinate with Egypt on Palestinian refugees and find a way to not harm Egypt's interests, Katz added.

However, comments by some in the Israeli government have stoked Palestinian and Arab fears of a new Nakba. Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich has repeatedly called for a policy of "encourging the migration" of Palestinians from Gaza and for Israel to impose military rule in the territory.