The world cannot be a battlefield everywhere: Trade must take precedence in South China Sea
Security deals rise in the South China Sea but trade and stability must take priority to avoid turning vital waters into a conflict zone. - REUTERS/Filepic
WHEN Philippine Defence Secretary Gilberto Teodoro Jr. announced that Britain had expressed interest in negotiating a Visiting Forces Agreement (SOVFA) with Manila, he interpreted it as a clear sign of support for the Philippines’ claim in the West Philippine Sea. The symbolic weight of a letter delivered by British Defence Minister Lord Coaker — written by his superior John Healey — was not lost on Manila. It represented, in Teodoro’s view, an external endorsement of sovereignty over waters that are now a flashpoint in global geopolitics.
AI Brief
- Growing defense pacts in the South China Sea risk escalating tensions and provoking military responses, especially from China.
- The region is crucial for global commerce, and militarisation threatens economic stability for ASEAN and beyond.
- ASEAN and partners should focus on trade and support a Code of Conduct to prevent conflict and protect navigation rights.
To allow this region to become another battlefield would be to risk the lifelines of global commerce, jeopardising both developed and developing economies alike.
Security Agreements and Their Costs
The Philippines already has a Mutual Defense Treaty with the United States, as well as an Enhanced Defence Cooperation Agreement (EDCA). Now, interest from the UK adds another layer to a growing web of security arrangements.
While such pacts offer deterrence value, they also risk inviting countermeasures. Every new defence commitment alters the calculus of major powers, particularly China, which perceives these agreements as encirclement.
This spiral can be self-perpetuating. What begins as defensive assurance soon morphs into a cycle of military posturing, naval manoeuvres, and mutual suspicion. The outcome is predictable: heightened tension, potential miscalculation, and a dangerous narrowing of diplomatic space.
The Forgotten Priority: Trade
What tends to be forgotten in the security discourse is the economic centrality of the South China Sea.
More than US5 trillion worth of trade transits through it annually, sustaining industries from Southeast Asia to Europe. For ASEAN, whose economic resilience depends on open sea lanes, trade must take precedence. If the region is militarised beyond repair, every ASEAN economy — from Singapore’s port-driven prosperity to Malaysia’s manufacturing and Vietnam’s exports — will bear the cost.
Rather than racing to outbid each other in security commitments, external powers should focus on safeguarding the freedom of navigation that underpins global commerce.
Trade and connectivity, not military rivalries, are what the world needs most urgently in the post-pandemic recovery period.
A Code of Conduct, Not a Clash of Armadas
ASEAN and China have been negotiating a Code of Conduct (CoC) for the South China Sea for more than two decades. The process is slow, sometimes frustratingly so, but it remains the best available framework to prevent miscalculation.
A CoC is not about determining sovereignty claims; it is about ensuring that competition does not spiral into confrontation.
Here is where external powers — the UK included — can be constructive. Instead of inserting more warships into an already crowded maritime space, they can lend their weight to accelerating the CoC negotiations, offering legal, diplomatic, and technical expertise. Supporting rules-based cooperation would contribute more to regional stability than any additional security pact.
Trade Before Tensions
The world today is too fragile to bear more battlefields. Ukraine remains mired in war.
The Middle East is volatile. In Africa, coups and conflicts continue to flare. To allow the South China Sea to join this litany of strife would be a collective failure of leadership.
What is needed now is not another Visiting Forces Agreement, but a renewed visiting of minds — where nations prioritise trade, energy security, and digital connectivity.
ASEAN, as custodian of regional centrality, must insist that its waters are not reduced to another arena for great-power rivalry. Trade must take precedence, for prosperity is the best guarantee of peace.
By rebalancing focus from confrontation to commerce, ASEAN and its partners can ensure that the South China Sea remains what it should be: a sea that connects, not a sea that divides.
Phar Kim Beng, PhD, is Professor of ASEAN Studies and Director of the Institute of Internationaliation and ASEAN Studies (IINTAS) at the International Islamic University Malaysia.
Luthfy Hamzah is Senior Research Fellow at IINTAS and a specialist in trade, political economy, and strategic diplomacy in Northeast Asia.
** The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the position of Astro AWANI.
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