Analysis: Malaysia need to reopen but at what cost?

The government said the reopening, dubbed "transition to endemicity", is timely and the result of Malaysia's relatively high vaccination rate of 78.9 percent. Although daily new cases might be high, the hospitalisation and severe case rates have gone down.

For the most part, Malaysians and people outside Malaysia are thrilled with the news. Economists and businesses are understandably happy too while doctors are either cautiously optimistic on one hand or gloomy at the development on the other.

Reopening as daily cases reach new highs - new cases hit a record 33,209 on March 4 - may be counterintuitive as noted by consultant paediatrician Dr Musa Mohd Noordin.

"There is still a large degree of uncertainty, which needs to be addressed responsibly and smartly or this opening up euphoria would unleash a false sense of safety and security to the lay public," he said via WhatsApp.

That Malaysia needs to reopen to improve its economy is a given. Due to the pandemic, some 580,000 households have fallen under the poverty line in the last two years. More than 6.1 million people had savings of less than RM10,000 in their Employees Provident Fund accounts as of Sept 30, 2021. Of that figure, about 3.6 million had less than RM1,000 left in savings. And this was before the December floods in several states in Malaysia, which displaced thousands of people and caused millions of ringgit in damage at an unprecedented scale.

TOURISM TO BE PRIMARY BENEFICIARY

Economics professor Prof Yeah Kim Leng of Sunway University told Bernama reopening was the shot in the arm that the economy needs, saying prolonged restrictions may no longer work as pandemic fatigue has set in.

"Malaysia is recovering. To progress further, we need the lifting of restrictions. The reopening is timely to reduce economic scarring," he said.

He expected tourism to be the primary beneficiary of the reopening, as announced by Prime Minister Datuk Seri Ismail Sabri Yaakob on March 8.

The transition to endemicity phase, beginning April 1, includes reopening the nation's international borders to fully-vaccinated travellers who will have to test negative for COVID-19 two days before arrival and within 24 hours upon arrival. No quarantine is required. Businesses such as 24-hour mamak restaurants will also be allowed to operate in accordance with the operating hours stipulated in their licences.

There will no longer be any limit to the number of people allowed at gatherings. Registration using the MySejahtera app is still mandatory at all premises except at open areas that are not crowded. MySejahteraTrace must also be enabled when entering indoor premises where a large number of people are present. Masks will still be required.

WORRIED

Malaysian Association of Tour and Travel Agents (MATTA) spokesman Nigel Wong is relieved the government is reopening its borders, saying it was about time. He told Bernama the past two years have been "horrible" for travel and tourism operators, seeing their income dry up with the absence of big-spending foreign tourists.

"We tried to survive with domestic tourism which jump-started the economy, but it is not sustainable. Malaysians are more independent travellers. They prefer to stay with their families and visit places on their own, rather than pay for a guide," he said.

Amid the jubilation, some could not help but be worried, remembering the 2020 Sabah election and last year's Ramadan bazaar fiasco, both of which saw spikes in COVID-19 cases and deaths.

Health experts say the caseload so far has been manageable, crediting the high vaccination rate among adults and adolescents.

"We can't wait until 100 percent (have been vaccinated) before we can start reopening and try to recover our economy and lives," said Associate Prof Dr Rafdzah Ahmad Zaki, an epidemiologist at Universiti Malaya Medical Centre.

However, she and other health experts admit there will be some cost to reopening, expecting cases to rise with the lifting of restrictions. Frontline workers, especially, are worried about the repercussions.

Government Contract Workers Network secretary-general Sivaranji Manickam told Bernama even though they are all vaccinated, an infection would disrupt their routine as they would be required to quarantine. Her organisation represents the cleaners and security guards at public facilities such as hospitals and schools.

"We can't work, we can't go out (if we get infected)," she said, adding that workers were not in place to absorb the disruption because they make less than RM1,500 a month. Some may not get paid when they don't turn up for work.

BA.2

Meanwhile, lurking in the shadows is the subvariant of concern BA.2, which is coming up and reportedly more transmissible than the "milder" BA.1 strain of the COVID-19 virus. It has already taken over Hong Kong and is spreading in India, the United Kingdom and the United States. While vaccines are working to prevent severe cases and deaths, those who have not been vaccinated or have severe comorbidities are especially vulnerable.

The biggest concern is for children. Although children aged five to 11 are included in the mass COVID-19 vaccination programme in Malaysia, the uptake is still very low, coming in at 30 percent. Children under the age of five cannot receive the jab at all, leaving them vulnerable.

Monash University-Malaysia virologist Dr Vinod Balasubramaniam said he would prefer it if Malaysia could wait a few months before reopening to allow more children to be vaccinated and adults to be boosted.

"I think it's too soon. The vaccination rate is going great if you look at the whole picture. But if you look at certain states, it's not uniform," he said.

He and other experts, therefore, stress the importance of continuing vaccine education and outreach efforts to reach the hard-to-convince crowd. One way is to bring home the message that the goal of saving lives does not have to be at the expense of the economy.

Acknowledging that strict health restrictions cannot continue indefinitely, Dr Musa said the government should be careful not to downplay COVID-19 and its risks. Instead, he said it is better to communicate how health measures and saving lives would in turn help the public economically.

"Studies have shown that the concerns for one's economic plight motivate one to be a better person in terms of virus mitigation behaviour and support for health policies to contain the virus," he said.

"Thus responsible and smart risk communications would prove effective if it consistently delivers the message that the public health mitigation measures are essential and needs to be followed in order to avoid job losses, protect their livelihoods and prevent further economic catastrophe."

There is also one thing that is different this time around, which may be boosting the government's decision to reopen next month, namely the existence of medication specifically tailored for COVID-19. Health Minister Khairy Jamaluddin announced recently that 110,000 treatment courses of Pfizer's Paxlovid will arrive in Malaysia this month.

However, Dr Rafdzah warned that the pill by itself is not a silver bullet and does not replace current prevention and mitigation tools, such as wearing good quality masks and getting fully vaccinated.